https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/ProjectsHugoBlox Kit (https://hugoblox.com)en-usThu, 20 Aug 2020 11:28:22 +1000https://www.krisna.or.id/media/icon_hu_b3b1c80225e80fa3.pnghttps://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/service/Mon, 15 Jul 2024 07:28:22 +0700https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/service/<p>A working draft. Please don&rsquo;t circulate.</p>https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/excise/Mon, 20 Nov 2023 11:28:22 +1000https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/excise/<h2 id="a-framework-to-estimate-cigarette-excise-elasticity">A framework to estimate cigarette excise elasticity</h2> <p>This report presents our analysis on mainly estimating elasticity and forecasting future excise and revenue for DGCE. We find that the elasticity of demand to be vary between -0.5 to -1.1. We also find a strong case for tax-price pass-through for SKM and SPM tobacco type. Our findings corroborates most literature on the Indonesian tobacco use. Unfortunately data limits how much and how robust the analysis can get. In particular, we find very little value of analysis on electric cigarettes, which maindly due to only one year datapoint available for study.</p>https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/carbon/Thu, 20 Aug 2020 11:28:22 +1000https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/carbon/<p>Currently under review at Asian-Pacific Economic Literature.</p> <h2 id="the-implication-of-the-aggressive-emission-target-on-the-indonesian-electricity-sector">The implication of the aggressive emission target on the Indonesian electricity sector</h2> <p>The pledge to reduce emission has reached a new height globally, and Indonesia is no exception. According to Indonesia’s latest NDCs, it vowed to reduce emission by 31.9% to 43.2%. One of the key for Indonesia to reduce its emission is electrification, which makes greening the grid a priority for the Indonesian government. However, Indonesia has been relying heavily on coal while the growth of renewable is slow. A linear optimization technique show that cleaning the indonesian electricity sector from coal leads to a potential increase in cost by 37%. The key to reduce this cost increase is by enabling the Indonesian independent power producers, which grow their electricity generation much faster than the state owned company. The government must improve the efficiency of procurement, improve its pricing, and forego local content requirements, if it wants to achieve its emission target.</p>https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/migas/Thu, 20 Aug 2020 11:28:22 +1000https://www.krisna.or.id/en/project/migas/<h2 id="macro-policy-brief-global-inflation-and-the-oil-production-glut">Macro Policy Brief: Global Inflation and the Oil Production Glut</h2> <p>Asumsi APBN menunjukkan optimisme pemerintah di mana dolar akan stabil di 15000 Rp/US$, inflasi di 2,8% dan suku bunga di kisaran 6,7%. Akan tetapi, situasi global menunjukkan adanya kemungkinan suku bunga internasional yang tetap tinggi untuk waktu yang lama (higher for longer). Di samping itu, kemungkinan adanya tekanan harga minyak internasional akibat OPEC yang masih menahan produksi juga dapat berdampak pada pasar minyak bumi di dalam negeri. Mengingat Indonesia saat ini net importer, maka akan sangat penting menjaga nilai tukar dari ketidakpastian global.</p>