Covid-19 | Krisna 'imed' Gupta

New update of the recent second wave (or third?) of COVID-19 in Indonesia

Wed, 28 Jul 2021 10:18:28 +1000

It has been a while since i last wrote about COVID-19. Today i’d like to check out Indonesia’s statistic on COVID-19, especially since it seem to get worse these days, unfortunately, and so many people talked about possibility of the government intentionally undertest to push down new cases at the cost of human lives.

Penambahan kasus Covid-19 harian cenderung menurun. Hal ini terjadi seiring dengan turunnya jumlah pemeriksaan secara signifikan. Masih terlalu dini untuk menyimpulkan bahwa gelombang Covid-19 telah terkendali. #Humaniora #AdadiKompas @aik_arif https://t.co/eYvloMmpIC
— Harian Kompas (@hariankompas) July 21, 2021

I rely heavily on Our World in Data ¹ which give free access of COVID-19 data.

Grab the data and show 6 tops

url='https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv' # simpan url
df=pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=['date']) # download dari url. parse_dates untuk menjadikan kolom date jadi tipe waktu
df.head(6) # menampilkan 10 baris paling atas

	iso_code	continent	location	date	total_cases	new_cases	new_cases_smoothed	total_deaths	new_deaths	new_deaths_smoothed	...	extreme_poverty	cardiovasc_death_rate	diabetes_prevalence	female_smokers	male_smokers	handwashing_facilities	hospital_beds_per_thousand	life_expectancy	human_development_index	excess_mortality
0	AFG	Asia	Afghanistan	2020-02-24	1.0	1.0	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	NaN	597.029	9.59	NaN	NaN	37.746	0.5	64.83	0.511	NaN
1	AFG	Asia	Afghanistan	2020-02-25	1.0	0.0	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	NaN	597.029	9.59	NaN	NaN	37.746	0.5	64.83	0.511	NaN
2	AFG	Asia	Afghanistan	2020-02-26	1.0	0.0	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	NaN	597.029	9.59	NaN	NaN	37.746	0.5	64.83	0.511	NaN
3	AFG	Asia	Afghanistan	2020-02-27	1.0	0.0	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	NaN	597.029	9.59	NaN	NaN	37.746	0.5	64.83	0.511	NaN
4	AFG	Asia	Afghanistan	2020-02-28	1.0	0.0	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	NaN	597.029	9.59	NaN	NaN	37.746	0.5	64.83	0.511	NaN
5	AFG	Asia	Afghanistan	2020-02-29	1.0	0.0	0.143	NaN	NaN	0.0	...	NaN	597.029	9.59	NaN	NaN	37.746	0.5	64.83	0.511	NaN

6 rows × 60 columns

I am not super familiar with its variable. So let’s check them out with df.columns.

df.columns # untuk panggil list dari nama-nama variabel

Index(['iso_code', 'continent', 'location', 'date', 'total_cases', 'new_cases',
'new_cases_smoothed', 'total_deaths', 'new_deaths',
'new_deaths_smoothed', 'total_cases_per_million',
'new_cases_per_million', 'new_cases_smoothed_per_million',
'total_deaths_per_million', 'new_deaths_per_million',
'new_deaths_smoothed_per_million', 'reproduction_rate', 'icu_patients',
'icu_patients_per_million', 'hosp_patients',
'hosp_patients_per_million', 'weekly_icu_admissions',
'weekly_icu_admissions_per_million', 'weekly_hosp_admissions',
'weekly_hosp_admissions_per_million', 'new_tests', 'total_tests',
'total_tests_per_thousand', 'new_tests_per_thousand',
'new_tests_smoothed', 'new_tests_smoothed_per_thousand',
'positive_rate', 'tests_per_case', 'tests_units', 'total_vaccinations',
'people_vaccinated', 'people_fully_vaccinated', 'new_vaccinations',
'new_vaccinations_smoothed', 'total_vaccinations_per_hundred',
'people_vaccinated_per_hundred', 'people_fully_vaccinated_per_hundred',
'new_vaccinations_smoothed_per_million', 'stringency_index',
'population', 'population_density', 'median_age', 'aged_65_older',
'aged_70_older', 'gdp_per_capita', 'extreme_poverty',
'cardiovasc_death_rate', 'diabetes_prevalence', 'female_smokers',
'male_smokers', 'handwashing_facilities', 'hospital_beds_per_thousand',
'life_expectancy', 'human_development_index', 'excess_mortality'],
dtype='object')

There’s a huge chunk of variable names! Musta been a super hard work collecting all the data. Shout out to Hannah Ritchie et al.

Aight now let’s check new cases! New cases tends to be volatile, especially if there’s seasonality in the data itself. It is quite common to see seasonality on daily data just because of weekends. Thankfully, there’s new_cases_smoothed which I imagine take into account seasonality by plotting 7-day rolling average. I only take Indonesian data for this post.

indo=df[["iso_code","date","new_cases","new_cases_smoothed"]].query('iso_code == "IDN"')

Plot time!

sns.lineplot(data=indo,x='date',y='new_cases')
sns.lineplot(data=indo,x='date',y='new_cases_smoothed')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)

(array([18322., 18383., 18444., 18506., 18567., 18628., 18687., 18748.,
18809.]),
[Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, ''),
Text(0, 0, '')])

I try to make my own 7-day rolling average by copying codes from here

indo['cases_7day_ave'] = indo.new_cases.rolling(7).mean().shift(-3)
indo.head(10)

	iso_code	date	new_cases	new_cases_smoothed	cases_7day_ave
44074	IDN	2020-03-02	2.0	NaN	NaN
44075	IDN	2020-03-03	0.0	NaN	NaN
44076	IDN	2020-03-04	0.0	NaN	NaN
44077	IDN	2020-03-05	0.0	NaN	0.857143
44078	IDN	2020-03-06	2.0	NaN	2.428571
44079	IDN	2020-03-07	0.0	0.571	3.571429
44080	IDN	2020-03-08	2.0	0.857	4.571429
44081	IDN	2020-03-09	13.0	2.429	4.571429
44082	IDN	2020-03-10	8.0	3.571	9.285714
44083	IDN	2020-03-11	7.0	4.571	13.142857

Which confirms that new_cases_smoothed is indeed 7-day rolling average.

sns.lineplot(data=indo,x='date',y='new_cases')
sns.lineplot(data=indo,x='date',y='new_cases_smoothed')
sns.lineplot(data=indo,x='date',y='cases_7day_ave')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.legend(['new cases','new cases smoothed','7-day average bikinan sendiri'])
plt.ylabel('kasus')
plt.xlabel('tanggal')

Text(0.5, 0, 'tanggal')

A year and a half is a bit too long (dear god it’s already a year and a half??), so let’s cut it to just 2021.

indo2=indo.query('date>20210101') # ambil hanya setelah 1 Januari 2021
# lalu kita plot persis seperti di atas
sns.lineplot(data=indo2,x='date',y='new_cases')
sns.lineplot(data=indo2,x='date',y='new_cases_smoothed')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.legend(['new cases','new cases smoothed','7-day average bikinan sendiri'])
plt.ylabel('kasus')
plt.xlabel('tanggal')

Text(0.5, 0, 'tanggal')

Cases is indeed seem to go down even with the smoothed one. But is this because of undertesting? We can also see it from our dataset. We add positive rate to really make sure.

indo=df[["iso_code","date","new_tests","new_tests_smoothed",
 "new_cases","new_cases_smoothed","positive_rate"]].query('iso_code == "IDN"')
indo2=indo.query('date>20210101')

fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(18, 10))
fig.suptitle('Data tes baru dan positive rate Indonesia')
sns.lineplot(ax=axes[0],data=indo2,x='date',y='new_tests')
sns.lineplot(ax=axes[0],data=indo2,x='date',y='new_tests_smoothed')
axes[0].tick_params(labelrotation=45)
axes[0].legend(['new tests','new tests smoothed'])
axes[0].set_ylabel('tes baru')
axes[0].set_xlabel('tanggal')
axes[0].set_title('new cases')
sns.lineplot(ax=axes[1],data=indo2,x='date',y='positive_rate')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('0-1')
plt.xlabel('tanggal')
axes[1].set_title('positive rate')

Text(0.5, 1.0, 'positive rate')

And yes test is indeed goes down. At the same time, positive rate seem to be trending down as well. This will depend on how testing is conducted in terms of selecting who gets to be tested and who’s not. We can be sure if we check hospitalisation and death. Unfortunately Indonesian hospitalisation number is non-existent in this dataset.

df.query('iso_code=="IDN"')[['weekly_icu_admissions','weekly_hosp_admissions']]

	weekly_icu_admissions	weekly_hosp_admissions
44074	NaN	NaN
44075	NaN	NaN
44076	NaN	NaN
44077	NaN	NaN
44078	NaN	NaN
...	...	...
44582	NaN	NaN
44583	NaN	NaN
44584	NaN	NaN
44585	NaN	NaN
44586	NaN	NaN

513 rows × 2 columns

On death (Dear God, bless all the lost souls and those who they left), situation is rather gloom.

indo=df[["iso_code","date","new_deaths","new_deaths_smoothed"]].query('iso_code == "IDN"')
indo2=indo.query('date>20210101')
sns.lineplot(data=indo2,x='date',y='new_deaths')
sns.lineplot(data=indo2,x='date',y='new_deaths_smoothed')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.legend(['kematian baru','kematian baru rerata bergerak 7 hari'])
plt.ylabel('kasus')
plt.xlabel('tanggal')

Text(0.5, 0, 'tanggal')

Judging from the death data, pandemic still far from over. Note that death may follow new cases, hence have a lag in its trending down. However, if we cannot trust test data, death data is also hard to be trusted. I think with unreliable data, it is hard to react on any news really, whether cases go up or down. It is hard to make a good case for the government, because people’s like: low cases: bad data! bad testing!. High cases: Government is stupid!

So yeah. I guess it is helping if we don’t overreact over the new cases because it might not reveal the true state of Indonesian COVID-19 Pandemic situation.

What about vaccination? Judging from all of our graph up there, new cases and positive rate shot up during June-ish. What happen during that month? Delta entrance? What kind of crowdy events happen during that time? What high mobility event took place during that date? The government might let high mobility events to take place amid vaccination program has started. So let me end this blog by posting vaccination speed between countries, including Indonesia.

Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, Cameron Appel, Lucas Rodés-Guirao and Max Roser (2020) - “Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: ‘https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource] ↩︎

Examining the National Economic Recovery (PEN) Stimulus Policy Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

Sat, 01 May 2021 14:30:00 +1000

Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the Indonesian economy across several dimensions. The first dimension is negative economic growth reaching -2.1% in 2020, while inflation remained relatively low at 1.9%. The second dimension is shown by the significant contraction of most MSMEs in terms of production, employment, and emergency funds for business operations. Meanwhile, the next dimension is the increase in unemployment and the decline in worker income as a result of layoffs and reduced income from self-employment activities.

The Indonesian government responded to the COVID-19 pandemic impact by establishing a strategic program in the form of the National Economic Recovery (PEN) as the implementation of Government Regulation in Lieu of Law Number 1 of 2020. In 2020, the total fiscal stimulus for PEN reached IDR 696 trillion, increasing to IDR 699.44 trillion in 2021. Many parties responded positively and appreciated the PEN plan and its realization. However, several critical challenges still need to be addressed, such as the availability of an accurate and accountable database, particularly for the realization of PEN for social protection and MSMEs. Synchronization and accuracy of poverty data in both urban and rural areas also need improvement. This has implications for the effectiveness and efficiency of PEN fund realization given the relatively limited fiscal stimulus capacity.

Policy recommendations can be implemented by the government with emphasis on PEN planning and realization supported by accurate and accountable databases. The year 2021 marks the initial momentum for national economic recovery through fiscal stimulus within the PEN framework. To that end, PEN fund allocation has been set higher than the previous year. Additionally, the monitoring and evaluation process for PEN fund realization can be conducted more rigorously as a form of public accountability. This means that the increased PEN fund allocation can be balanced by good governance practices. To support PEN, the government can sharpen tax revenue sources and increase borrowing for productive sectors.

Economic Conditions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Thu, 08 Apr 2021 12:30:00 +1100

Economic recovery through export

Sat, 27 Feb 2021 14:00:00 +1100

Pendahuluan

During a pandemic, the best economic policy is health policy. Vaccine is often cited to be the silver bullet of Indonesian economy. Say it is true, the speed seems to suggest that we need to readjust our hope from the vaccine. Data from our world in data Shows that our speed need some bump if we are to meet the target.

That said, Vaccination does not seem to correlate with economic growth. Although Indonesia is a bit behind compare to Turkey and Brazil, the economic growth are somewhat similar. I pick weekly tracker from OECD, and this data shows that albeit vary in vaccination speed, growth are somewhat similar.

A note on weekly tracker, it uses machine learning to nowcast growth from google trend, so read it with a grain of salt. The data however is timely (hence nowcasting instead of forecasting).

Export recovery

Likewise, export performance doesn’t seem to be impacted by the pandemic. In fact, Indonesia’s export performance in terms of value is higher in November and December 2020 compared to the same month a year earlier.

Export was also the way most ASEAN countries escape the Asian Financial Crisis 1998.

A little note on that though, cuz the crisis during 1998 was pretty much concentrated in ASEAN and East Asia region, hence selling stuff to EU or US is a viable option. There was a huge drop in exchange rate too, which allows for increased competitiveness of Indonesian goods. Both doesn’t happen with the same extent as 1998, perhaps for the better.

That said, stimuli from advanced economies may provide the global demand Indonesia needs right now, if one’s to recover through export.

Often times, people ask me “what products do we need to push to the export market”? Very complicated question, but in this seminar, I just use Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) to try to attend to that question.

RCA

RCA is one metric we can look at to assess how competitive a country is on a certain product. In the RCA term, the higher the number, the more competitive that country is in producing that particular good.

I use UNCTAD’s data hence their defintion which can be read here. Buat yang suka rumus, silakan lihat di akhir post ini.

I ain’t running thru all of the HS codes. I aggregate them based on HS2 which can be seen here.

The picture below shows Indonesian RCA dynamics from 2000 to 2018. We can see that Indonesia’s RCAs are high in mining stuff and vegetable oil (which is basically Crude Palm Oil or CPO). There’s oil, gas and coal in fuels terdapat minyak bumi, gas alam dan batubara. Indonesian rubber is also highly competitive. RCA in minerals drops significantly, I would speculate the mineral ban ruling which was started to get very interesting in 2009 onward.

Indonesia also great in producing wood and wood products, also labour intensive stuff like footwear and textiles.

Harga-harga komoditas

Well, naturally Indonesia is a commodity exporter. Now is indeed a good time to be a commodity exporter since the prices of all of Indonesia’s export commodities are skyrocketting at the moment. Maybe not fuels, but still.

Export value

Data shows that Indonesia’s overall export value isn’t affected very much by the pandemic. CPO and fuels domination is clearly visible here. In fact, CPO grows compared to 2019. Fuel went down amid the pandemic, however, also the energy prices shock led by oil.

Transportation goods are dropping, one reason why Indonesia is exempting the tax for buying a car to exploit demand market. Textiles are hurt as well, perhaps amid the PPE viasco which lead to input for textiles disrupted. Textiles is a bit GVC heavy, so a disruption in the supply chain matters a lot.

RCA isn’t everything

RCA changes. Indonesian RCA also changes. Maybe Indonesia will not always be a commodity exporter forever. In fact, Indonesian government are heavily intervening through import substitution policies and trying to increase domestic value added by banning mineral export. As you can see from the graph above, mineral exports are going down while the export for metals, product of smelters, are increasing. I also hear anecdotes that the government is trying to improve CPO-processing industries.

On fuels, Indonesia may need to be careful since many advanced countries these days are pushing their zero emission target. Even China, in fact. This may reduce the coal price in the future.

Backward participation in GVC may be the best option for the governmen. Consequently, import will be a bit high since backward participation may require firms to import inputs and capital goods. Import may be as important as export itself because of this cuz import may reflect industrial activities.

Kinerja impor

For better or worse, import is a bit stagnant. Fuels import drops, likely because of the mobility issues amid the virus. Not just fuels, many other imports are dropping.

Capital goods (machinery and elect) and inputs (like metal (steel is important)) also drops, which can be a bad sign.

Strategi Pemerintah

Many of Indonesia’s manufacturer requires imported inputs, such as:

Soybean for tofu, tempe, chicken and beef;
iron, steel and chemical;
synthetic fibre, etc.

Moreover, domestic value added through export ban may take some time to realize. From nickel to battery to electric car could take years to materialized. By that time, maybe COVID is over (or maybe endemic we’ll see). Hence, speed matters.

If the government opt to go ahead with the ban (sunk cost is high anyway), then fiscal support in the short run is necessary. The government just need to make sure that these industries are growing and showing promises. Additionally, it may increase import, something the government really hate.

Retaliation is another matter with the export ban. It is kinda pointless trying to build industries with foreign debt and investment if the country can’t export its product to get foreign reserves. It also possibly limits economies of scale. This possible retaliation is worth keeping in mind. If we can ban import and export, why other countries can’t? RCEP may play a great role in this fiasco, but we’ll see.

All in all, let’s hope for the best, as usual.

rumus

$$ RCA_{Ai}=\frac{\frac{X_{Ai}}{\sum_{j \in P} X_{Aj}}}{\frac{X_{wi}}{\sum_{j \in P} X_{wj} }} \geq 1 $$

RCA negara $A$ untuk barang $i$ tergantung pentingnya ekspor barang $i$ untuk negara $A$, dibandingkan dengan pentingnya barang $i$ di seluruh dunia $w$.

kembali ke RCA

Agregasi

kembali ke RCA

Vaksin COVID-19 di Indonesia: harapan dan hambatan

Fri, 26 Feb 2021 15:00:00 +1100

Rasanya sangat lumrah jika ada ketertarikan yang tinggi terhadap program vaksinasi di Indonesia. Indonesia Synergy, sekumpulan mahasiswa di Canberra, mencoba mangakomodir keinginan beberapa warga Canberra terutama para mahasiswa untuk mengadakan diskusi santai mengenai beberapa permasalahan dan optimisme mengenai program vaksinasi massal ini.

target dan jenis vaksin

beberapa permasalahan di Indonesia

Kami mengundang Mbak Liza dan Bli Tarsa, dua orang peneliti di Australian National University (ANU). Dr Syarifah Munira adalah peneliti di Research School of Population Health, sementara Dr I Nyoman Sutarsa adalah dosen dan peneliti di Rural Clinical School, Medical School, The Australian National University. Bli Tarsa juga terafiliasi dengan Department of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Udayana University, Indonesia.

Bli Tarsa juga sempat menjadi pembicara di ANU Indonesia Project Global Seminar Series dua hari sebelum diskusi ini terjadi. Saya rekomen pada nonton rekamannya di youtube ANU Indonesia Project di sini.

Diskusi berjalan sangat lancar dan seru. Berikut sedikit kesimpulan dari diskusi hari itu.

Resensi ini adalah hasil interpretasi pribadi saya, dan belum tentu merefleksikan pemikiran kedua narasumber dengan ketepatan 100%

Diskusi dimulai dengan mengangkat soal efikasi. Mbak Liza menjelaskan bahwa efikasi sebenarnya digunakan untuk mengestimasi seberapa banyak populasi yang harus divaksinasi untuk mencapai herd immunity. Beliau juga menjelaskan bahwa desain vaksin-vaksin yang ada saat ini memberikan penekanan kepada penurunan gejala sedang sampai berat, sehingga dapat mengurangi beban rumah sakit. Bli Tarsa menambahkan bahwa mengukur efektivitas vaksin memerlukan waktu yang cukup lama, dan untuk saat ini melihat hospitalization rate dapat lebih menjelaskan hal tersebut.

Dari sana, diskusi bergerak ke arah target Pemerintah, apakah target ini realistis atau tidak. Menurut Bli Tarsa, target ini cukup realistis, namun dengan memerhatikan rumitnya kondisi logistik di lapangan. Pemerintah juga harus meningkatkan jumlah vaksinator, karena target tersebut akan sulit terealisasi jika hanya mengandalkan fasilitas dan tenaga kesehatan yang ada saat ini. Program seperti melatih sukarelawan vaksinator di komunitas (seperti RT/RW) dapat menjadi jalan keluar karena vaksin COVID-19 tidak terlalu sulit diinjeksi (cukup lewat otot) dan komunitas berpotensi memiliki data yang lebih baik dan personal. Ia juga menambahkan best practice dari banjar di Bali.

Diskusi yang mungkin paling seru terjadi ketika membahas privatisasi. Mbak Liza memberikan penekanan ekstra pada bahaya kegagalan pasar (market failure). Privatisasi berpotensi menggerus jatah pemerintah dan mendistribusikan vaksin tidak sesuai dengan target, yaitu nakes dahulu, lansia dan pekerja esensial seperti guru, baru masyarakat luas. Bli Tarsa setuju dengan hal tersebut, mengatakan bahwa approach terbaik tetap terpimpin atau top down. Namun Mbak Liza menambahkan bahwa skema Public-Private Partnership dapat berjalan selama distribusi tetap sesuai dengan kebutuhan epidemiologis, bukan semata-mata ekonomi.

situasi saat diskusi

Basis data juga menjadi perhatian serius. Bli Tarsa mengatakan pentingnya memiliki basis data, terutama karena approach yang beliau sarankan adalah distribusi dari atas, namun dilakukan melalui grass root seperti RT/RW. Dengan kata lain, pendataan yang nyambung menjadi sangat penting. Pendataan berguna tidak hanya untuk targeting orang yang belum divaksin tapi harus divaksin, tetapi juga memastikan bahwa orang yang eligible memang sudah divaksin. Tentunya kita tidak ingin ada kasus seperti tes PCR palsu: orang yang belum divaksin ngaku-ngaku divaksin demi bisa jalan-jalan.

Kedua narasumber juga tidak menyetujui sanksi seperti denda dan kurungan. approach yang lebih baik adalah dengan mengeluarkan semacam insentif. Contohnya di Australia, vaksin tidak diwajibkan. Namun ada kemungkinan pemerintah akan melobi perusahaan penerbangan untuk mewajibkan semua penumpang untung divaksin. Hal ini akan memberikan kebutuhan vaksinasi bagi setiap orang. Tentunya ini akan kembali lagi ke pentingnya pendataan untuk menghindari sertifikat vaksin palsu atau semacamnya.

Vaksin dalam negeri saat ini sepertinya masih cukup jauh dari realisasi. Vaksin merah-putih yang dikembangkan lembaga Eijkman baru sampai tahap 1 dan kemungkinan memerlukan setahun sampai siap diproduksi. Sementara itu, Vaksin nusantara / gotong-royong menggunakan teknologi yang pengembangannya dapat mencapai 10 tahun. Sepertinya agak sulit mengandalkan kedua vaksin ini untuk saat ini.

Poin terakhir adalah soal mutasi. Mutasi dapat menjadi momok apabila mutasi tersebut mengurangi efektivitas vaksin yang ada saat ini. Kemungkinan yang terjadi adalah keharusan melakukan re-vaksinasi, sehingga hal ini dapat membebani tidak hanya kapasitas produksi, namun juga kapasitas distribusi. Mbak Liza memberikan gambaran bahwa to some extent, hal ini dapat memberikan kepastian untuk produsen vaksin dalam meningkatkan kapasitas produksi. Bli Tarsa mengatakan bahwa saat ini mutasi masih terus dipantau, dan berharap bahwa Indonesia juga memberikan perhatian khusus dalam menguraikan strain-strain yang ada di Indonesia saat ini.

Diskusi ditutup dengan pesan dari kedua narasumber untuk senantiasa mengabarkan hal yang benar. Harapan yang tinggi juga diberikan kepada pemerintah untuk menyukseskan vaksinasi massal ini, sesuatu yang belum pernah dilakukan sebelumnya.

Berikut foto-foto pasca diskusi. Canberra sendiri sudah membolehkan penduduknya beraktivitas seperti biasa. Mulai senin, saya sendiri akan memulai pengajaran offline untuk pertama kali. Pemerintah Australia agak santai dalam menjalankan program vaksinasinya, partly karena COVID-19 di Australia sudah cukup terkendali.

situasi setelah diskusi

Comparative advantage untuk vaksin

Thu, 04 Feb 2021 22:04:07 +1100

Ekspor sebagai strategi economic recovery pasca COVID-19

Krisna Gupta

IDM Coop: Badai Pandemi, Vaksinasi dan Harapan Pemulihan Ekonomi

Sabtu, 27 Februari 2021

Siapa saya?

Mahasiswa doktoral di Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Lebih lanjut tentang saya klik s.id/krisnagupta

Hari ini

Revealed Comparative advantage (RCA)
Statistik ekspor dan impor
Approach pemerintah

Slide ini

dapat diakses di s.id/krisnaidm

Kecepatan vaksin perlu ditingkatkan

Sumber: Our World in Data

GDP Terkendali

Data Weekly tracker dari OECD menunjukkan Indonesia tidak cukup dalam terkoreksi, namun recovery sepertinya masih butuh waktu.

Recovery dari ekspor

Indonesia dan negara ASEAN lainnya mengandalkan ekspor untuk recovery AFC 1998. Bedanya: COVID-19 adalah krisis global, tidak terjadi depresiasi rupiah yang dalam. Seiring dengan memulihnya kasus COVID-19, stimulus di negara tujuan ekspor bisa jadi peluang.

Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)

[RCA] adalah salah satu metrik untuk Ekspor andalan suatu negara
RCA menghitung besarnya kontribusi suatu negara terhadap produksi suatu komoditas
- Suatu negara dikatakan unggul jika $RCA\geq1$
- definisi formal ada di slide 18
Tabel agregasi yang digunakan di presentasi ini dapat dilihat di slide terakhir

RCA

Indonesia memiliki keunggulan di komoditas. Vegetable didorong oleh Crude Palm Oil (CPO), sementara mineral terpengaruh kebijakan lartas yang ramai sejak 2009-an.

RCA

Selain komoditas kayu, Indonesia juga unggul di industri kertas, tekstil dan persepatuan. Angka setelah 2016 cenderung stagnan. Barang modal sepertinya masih kurang kompetitif.

Recovery dengan ekspor

Ekspor adalah jalan keluar yang cukup baik:
- karena dapat mengamankan cadangan devisa;
- permintaan LN yang tinggi akan komoditas;
- cepat.
Bagaimana dengan kinerja ekspor belakangan ini?

Ekspor

Dominasi CPO, migas dan batubara sangat terlihat. CPO bahkan tumbuh di 2020 dibandingkan dengan 2019. Tahun-tahun ini juga saat dimulainya larangan ekspor mineral.

Ekspor

Sebagian besar komoditas melemah di 2020. Ekspor mobil sangat terdampak, karena itu pemerintah mencoba memanfaatkan pasar domestik melalui pembebasan pajak. Sementara ekspor metal meningkat seiring peningkatan kapasitas smelter.

RCA bukan segalanya

RCA selalu berubah
Indonesia sedang berstrategi meningkatkan nilai tambah dalam negeri.
- Mineral $\Rightarrow$ smelter $\Rightarrow$ baterai listrik $\Rightarrow$ mobil listrik
- turunan CPO
minyak, gas dan batubara tidak selamanya bisa diandalkan seiring target zero carbon emission dari berbagai negara.
Memanfaatkan GVC adalah (mungkin) cara terbaik
- ekspektasi impor meningkat
- berapa lama?

Impor

Impor cenderung stagnan. Menurunnya permintaan energi merupakan dampak menurunnya mobilitas dan aktivitas manufaktur.

Impor

Penurunan impor barang modal (mchinery & electronics) dan bahan baku (terutama baja) juga indikator melemahnya produksi

Apakah GVC solusi?

GVC dapat meningkatkan impor karena untuk kompetitif di pasar global, perusahaan harus mendapatkan akses bahan baku yang juga kompetitif.
Banyak bahan baku murah harus dipasok dari luar negeri:
- kedelai untuk tahu, tempe dan pakan ternak;
- besi baja dan bahan kimia;
- serat sintetis, dll
Larangan ekspor mineral butuh waktu untuk dituai
- investasi industri sel baterai butuh waktu
- bagaimana dengan kapasitas fiskal?

Strategi pemerintah

Permintaan dunia yang tinggi akan komoditas meberikan peluang. Pemerintah perlu mencermati kebijakan lartasnya.
PP turunan UU Cipta Kerja berorientasi ke penambahan nilai tambah dalam negeri dan investasi asing:
- berpeluang menekan neraca pembayaran.
- berapa lama sampai menuai hasil?
Dukungan fiskal yang cukup dapat menjadi solusi jangka pendek, sambil memantau peningkatan daya saing industri dalam negeri.
Waspada bahaya retaliasi: mineral dapat dibeli dari negara lain. Retaliasi berpotensi membatasi skala ekonomis.

Definisi formal RCA dan sumber data

Data RCA diambil dari UNCTAD
Definisi RCA menurut UNCTAD:

$$ RCA_{Ai}=\frac{\frac{X_{Ai}}{\sum_{j \in P} X_{Aj}}}{\frac{X_{wi}}{\sum_{j \in P} X_{wj} }} \geq 1 $$

RCA negara $A$ untuk barang $i$ tergantung pentingnya ekspor barang $i$ untuk negara $A$, dibandingkan dengan pentingnya barang $i$ di seluruh dunia $w$.

Klasifikasi

Kembali ke slide 8

Indonesia's export and import for COVID-19-related goods: July 2020

Sun, 01 Nov 2020 23:10:58 +1100

This is an updated figures on COVID-19-related goods export and import in Indonesia. I was once presenting about it in ANU Indonesia Project’s global seminar series, and I cited Indonesian monthly trade data until March 2020. WCO/WHO classification second edition was used to identify what are considered COVID-19-related goods.

This time around, I’ve got my hands on the trade data until July 2020, and I am using WCO/WHO third revision classification. Illustration is conducted in R codes. So let’s see what happens.

Exports are generally similar to last year’s

First, let’s take a look at export.

# Loading and cleaning the data
library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)

expor<-read.csv('Book1.csv') # read the data
a<-colnames(expor) # add column names to a for easy rename
expor<-expor %>% # rename variable names
 rename(hs=a[1],deskripsi=a[2],tujuan=a[3],periode=a[4],kg=a[5],usd=a[6])

# make periode into time series
expor$periode<-as.Date(paste0(as.character(expor$periode), '01'),format='%Y%m%d')

# Make aggregation to all countries
exporall<-expor %>% group_by(hs,periode) %>% summarise((expor=sum(usd)))
a<-colnames(exporall)
exporall<-exporall %>% rename(usd=a[3])

# Make aggregation on WCO goods classification
wco<-read.csv('wco.csv') # adding wco classification
wco<-wco %>% distinct(hshs, .keep_all = TRUE) # drop duplicates
wco$hshs<-as.character(wco$hshs) #make hshs a string so i can join them
exporall$hshs<-substr(as.character(exporall$hs),start=1,stop=6) # taking the first 6 digits
final<-inner_join(exporall,wco,by="hshs")
finall<-final %>% group_by(desc,periode) %>% summarise(expor=sum(usd))
a<-colnames(finall)
finall<-finall %>% rename(usd=a[3])
finall$usd6<-finall$usd/1000000

# plot
ggplot(finall,aes(x=periode,y=usd6, color=desc)) +
 geom_line(aes(linetype=desc),size=1.1) +
 scale_x_date(date_labels="%b-%y",date_breaks = "2 month")+
 # theme_ipsum() +
 # theme(axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1)) +
 geom_vline(xintercept=as.Date('20200301',format='%Y%m%d')) +
 labs(x='tahun',y="Million USD",title="Indonesia's export of COVID-19 related goods",subtitle="BPS,Compiled by Pusdatin Kemenperin")

Apart from other consumables and PPE, Indonesia isn’t really comparatively advantageous in producing health equipments in general. PPE jump in February was the infamous skyrocketed export in masks due to demand surge by China and Singapore, the two countries experienced COVID-19 at the early stage. In March, Indonesia consulted to export ban on PPEs and other stuffs, but export was still quite strong amind commitment to buyers.

During the talk, I mentioned how Indonesia can be a powerhouse in making PPEs in a competitive way, provided the inputs. However, export ban seems to prevent this. It is also still possible to say production did increase but it was mostly consumed domestically.

Indonesian export value tends to reduced during the ramadhan season which happened in June in 2019, but May in 2020. The export ban and many other trade measures was revoked in June 2020, so it will be interesting to take a look at the numbers after July 2020.

Testing kits imports were raising, but most imports went down in July

More things can be said on imports.

As you can see, import plays a significant role in Indonesian health service even before COVID-19. While Indonesia can produce surgical gown competitively, capital-intensive PPE such as masks are still mostly imported. Moreover, Indonesia also imports a lot of other COVID-19-related goods quite extensively.

Indonesia’s first case was in early March. And as you can see, the number of imports shot up right after March, especially testing kits and PPEs. The trend weakend on May (ramadhan?) except for the testing kits import. Interestingly, coming July, all imports went down except for other medical equipments. I mentioned about revoked rules (yes, including for easing up imports for private enterprises), so this may reflect that. It could also reflect improvement on domestic production but I am not sure. Sadly domestic production numbers are a bit harder to get.

Notably, Imports are generally decreased in February (take this with a grain of salt but I am thinking Chinese New Year. China is a major source of import).

Despite its ability in improving growth and standard of living, trade has never been championed as the tool to improve production. On the countrary, countries are trying to look inward, including (especially?) Indonesia. I am quite sceptical Indonesian economy can crank-up essential production in a short time alone, but I highly hope I am wrong.

Here’s what covered in WCO Classification.

section	desc	hs	deskripsi
1	testing kit etc	38220010	Plates, sheets, film, foil & strip of plastics impregnated or coated with diagnostic reagents or laboratory
1	testing kit etc	38220020	Paperboard, cellulose wadding & web of cellulose fibres impregnated or coated with diagnostic reagents or laboratory
1	testing kit etc	38220030	Sterilisation indicator strips & tapes
1	testing kit etc	38220090	Diagnostic/laboratory reagents on a backing prepared diagnostic/laboratory reagents Oth than HS 3822.00.10 - 3822.00.30
1	testing kit etc	30021500	Oth blood fractions, whet/not modified/obtain by biotechnological process,put up in measured doses
1	testing kit etc	90278010	Oth instruments&apparatus,exposure meters
1	testing kit etc	90278030	Oth instruments&apparatus oth exposure meters,electricallyoperated
1	testing kit etc	90278040	Oth instruments&apparatus oth exposure meters,not electrically operated
1	testing kit etc	38210010	Prepared culture media for the development of microorganisms
1	testing kit etc	38210090	Other than prepared culture media for the development of microorganisms
2	PPE	48189000	Cellulose wadding or webs of cellulose fibres, oth thn hs code 4818.10.00 - 4818.50.00
2	PPE	63079030	Umbrella covers in pre-cut triangular form
2	PPE	63079040	Surgical masks
2	PPE	63079061	Safety harnesses safety suitable for industrial use
2	PPE	63079069	Safety harnesses suitable not for industrial use
2	PPE	63079070	Fans and handscreens
2	PPE	63079080	Laces for shoes,boots,corsets & the like
2	PPE	63079090	Oth made up articls excl umbrella covers/surgical masks/safety harnesses/fans&handscreens/laces shoes,boots,corsets
2	PPE	90200000	Breathing appliances&gas masks,excl protective masks having neither mechanical part nor replaceable filters
2	PPE	90049010	Corrective spectacles
2	PPE	90049050	Protective goggles
2	PPE	90049090	Spectacles & the like excl corrective, protective googles
2	PPE	39269010	Floats for fishing nets
2	PPE	39269020	Fans and handscreens, frames and handles therefor, and parts thereof
2	PPE	39269032	Plastic moulds with denture imprints
2	PPE	39269039	Hygienic, medical and surgical articles oth plastic moulds with denture imprints
2	PPE	39269041	Police shields
2	PPE	39269042	Protective masks for use in welding and similar work
2	PPE	39269044	Life saving cushions for the protection of persons falling from heights
2	PPE	39269049	Other safety and protective devices
2	PPE	39269053	Transmission or conveyor belts or belting
2	PPE	39269055	Plastic J-hooks or bunch blocks for detonators
2	PPE	39269059	Other articles for industrial uses
2	PPE	39269060	Point of poultry feeders
2	PPE	39269070	Padding for articles of apparel or clothing accessories
2	PPE	39269081	Cards for shoe lasts
2	PPE	39269082	Cards for prayer beads
2	PPE	39269089	Cards for jewellery or other small objects of personal adornment
2	PPE	39269091	Point of a kind used for grain storage
2	PPE	39269092	Empty capsules of a kind suitable for pharmaceutical use
2	PPE	39269099	Other articles of plastics & other materials of headings 39.01 to 39.14. oth than 3926.10.00-3926.90.92
2	PPE	40151100	Gloves, mittens and mitts for surgical, of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40151900	Gloves, mittens and mitts for not surgical, of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	61161010	Divers’ gloves,knitted or crocheted, Impregnated,coated or covered with plastics or rubber
2	PPE	61161090	Other gloves, mittens and mitts, knitted or crocheted,impregnated, coated or covered with plastics or rubber
2	PPE	62160010	Protective work gloves, mittens and mitts
2	PPE	62160091	Other gloves, mittens and mitts,of wool or fine animal hair
2	PPE	62160092	Other gloves, mittens and mitts,of cotton
2	PPE	62160099	Other gloves, mittens and mitts,of oth textile material excwool or fine animal hair or cotton
2	PPE	65050010	Hats & oth headgear of a kind used for religious purposes,knitted/crocheted
2	PPE	65050020	Hair-nets of any materials
2	PPE	65050090	Oth hats&oth headgear,not for hair-nets/religious purposes,knitted/crochet
2	PPE	62114210	Garments for fencing or wrestling,of cotton,women’s/girl’s
2	PPE	62114220	Prayer cloaks, of cotton, women’s or girl’s
2	PPE	62114290	Other garments exc for fencing/wrestling/prayer cloaks, ofcotton, womenâ€™s or girl’s
2	PPE	40159010	Lead aprons, of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40159020	Divers’ suits (wet suits), of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40159090	Articles apparel&clothing accessories,oth thn 40151100-40159020 for all purposes, vulcanised rubber oth thn hard rubber
2	PPE	48185000	Articles of apparel and clothing accessories
2	PPE	62101011	Garments used for protection from chemical substances, radiation or fire, of fabrics of heading 56.02 or 56.03
2	PPE	62101019	Other protective work garment (exc used for protection fromchemical substance,radiation/fire),of fabric head 5602/5603
2	PPE	62101090	Garments of fabrics of heading 56.02 or 56.03, other than protective work garments
2	PPE	62104010	Menâ€™s or boysâ€™ garments, used for protection from fire
2	PPE	62104020	Menâ€™s or boysâ€™ garments, used for protection from chemicalsubstances or radiation
2	PPE	62104090	Other menâ€™s or boysâ€™ protective work garments (exc used forprotection from fire/chemical subtances/radiation)
2	PPE	62105010	Women’s or girls’ garments, used for protection from fire
2	PPE	62105090	Other women’s or girls’ protective work garments (exc usedfor protection from fire/chemical subtances/radiation)
2	PPE	40169911	Parts&access kind used for vehicles of Chapter 87 for vehicles of head 8702,8703, 8704 or 8705,oth thn weatherstripping
2	PPE	40169912	Parts and accessories of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber, of a kind used for vehicles of heading 87.11
2	PPE	40169913	Weatherstripping of vulcanised rubber oth thn hard rubber, of a kind used on motor vehicles of heading 8702,8703 or 8704
2	PPE	40169915	Parts&accessories of vulcanised rubber oth thn hard rubber,of a kind used for vehicles of head 8709, 8713, 8715 or 87.16
2	PPE	40169916	Bicycle mudguards of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169917	Bicycle parts of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169918	Other bicycle accessories of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169919	Parts&accessories of a kind used for vehicles of Chapter 87 of vulcanised rubber exc hard rubber oth thn 4016.99.11-20
2	PPE	40169920	Parts and accessories of rotochutes of heading 88.04 of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169930	Rubber bands, of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169940	Wall tiles of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169951	Rubber rollers of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169952	Tyre mould bladders of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169953	Electrical insulator hoods of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169954	Rubber grommets and rubber covers for automotive wiring harnesses of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169959	Oth articles a kind used in machinery/mechanical/electric appliances,or for oth technical uses,oth thn 40169951-40169954
2	PPE	40169960	Rail pads of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169970	Structural bearings including bridge bearings of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169991	Table coverings of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber
2	PPE	40169999	Other articles of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber, n.e.c in 4016
3	sterilization product	22071000	Undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80 % vol or higher
3	sterilization product	22089010	Medicated samsu of an alcoholic strength by volume not exceeding 40 % vol
3	sterilization product	22089099	oth than samsu, arrack and bitters of an alcoholic strength by volume exceeding 114 % vol but not exceed 40 % vol
3	sterilization product	38089410	Disinfectants containing mixtures of coal tar acid & alkalis
3	sterilization product	38089420	Disinfectants other than those containing mixtures of coal tar acid & alkalis
3	sterilization product	38089490	Disinfectants other than HS 3808.94.10 - 3808.94.20
3	sterilization product	84192000	Medical, surgical or laboratory sterilisers
3	sterilization product	28470010	Hydrogen peroxide, whether or not solidified with urea. In liquid form
3	sterilization product	28470090	Hydrogen peroxide, whether or not solidified with urea. Oth than liquid form
3	sterilization product	30049010	Transdermal therapeutic system patches for the treatment of cancer or heart diseases
3	sterilization product	30049020	Closed sterile water for inhalation, pharmaceutical grade
3	sterilization product	30049030	Antiseptics
3	sterilization product	30049041	Anaesthetics,Containing procaine hydrochloride
3	sterilization product	30049049	Anaesthetics,Other than Containing procaine hydrochloride
3	sterilization product	30049051	Analgesics,antipyretic&oth med cont para cetamol/dipyrone,acetylsalicylic,taken o
3	sterilization product	30049052	Analges,antipyretic&ot.medicament for the treat.of coughs/colds,contain/not antihistamine,contain chlrpeniramine maleate
3	sterilization product	30049053	Analges,antipyretic&oth.medicament for the treat.of cough/cold,contain/not antihistamine,contain diclofenac,taken orally
3	sterilization product	30049054	Analgesic,antipyretic&oth medicament for treatment of cough/cold,contain/not antihistamine,contain piroxicam/ibuprofen
3	sterilization product	30049055	Analgesic,antipyretic&oth medicaments for the treatment of cough/cold,contain/not antihistamines,other,in liniment form
3	sterilization product	30049059	Analgesic,antipyretic&oth med cont acety lsalicylic acd,paractaml/dpyron,not oral
3	sterilization product	30049064	Antimalarials, Containing artemisinin other than of subheading 3004.60.10
3	sterilization product	30049065	Antimalarials, Not Containing primaquine & artemisinin other than of subheading 3004.60.10, Herbal medicaments
3	sterilization product	30049069	Antimalarials, Not Containing primaquine & artemisinin other than of subheading 3004.60.10, Herbal medicaments
3	sterilization product	30049071	Anthelmintic, Containing piperazine or mebendazole (INN)
3	sterilization product	30049072	Anthelmintic Not containing piperazine or mebendazole (INN) for Herbal medicaments
3	sterilization product	30049079	Anthelminti containing piperazine or mebendazole (INN) for Herbal medicaments
3	sterilization product	30049082	Other medicaments for the treatment of HIV/AIDS
3	sterilization product	30049089	Oth medicaments for other intractable diseases oth than HIV/AIDS
3	sterilization product	30049091	Other medicaments containing sodium chloride or glucose, for infusion
3	sterilization product	30049092	Other medicaments containing sorbitol or salbutamol, for infusion
3	sterilization product	30049093	Other medicaments containing sorbitol or salbutamol, in other forms
3	sterilization product	30049094	Other medicaments containing cimetidine (INN) or ranitidine (INN) other than for injection
3	sterilization product	30049096	Nasaldrop medicaments containing naphazoline, xylometazoline or oxymetazoline
3	sterilization product	30049098	Herbal medicaments
3	sterilization product	30049099	Other medicaments except HS 3004.10.15 to 3004.90.98
3	sterilization product	29051200	Propan-1-ol (propyl alcohol) & propan-2-ol (isopropyl alcohol)
3	sterilization product	29151100	Formic acid
3	sterilization product	29151200	Salts of formic acid
3	sterilization product	29182100	Salicylic acid & its salts
3	sterilization product	85394900	Ultra-violet/infra-red lamps
3	sterilization product	85395000	Light-emitting diode (LED) lamps
3	sterilization product	85437010	Electric fence energisers
3	sterilization product	85437020	Remote control apparatus,oth radio remote control apparatus
3	sterilization product	85437030	Electrical machines with translation/dictionary functions
3	sterilization product	85437040	Equipment/machine for removal dust particle&curingmaterial by UV light for mfg of printed circuit boards
3	sterilization product	85437090	Oth equipment/machine for removal dust particle&curingmaterial by UV light for mfg of printed circuit boards
4	Oxygen teraphy	90192000	Ozone therapy,oxygen therapy, aerosoltherapy, artificialrespiration/other therapeutic respiration apparatus
4	Oxygen teraphy	90183910	Catheters
4	Oxygen teraphy	90183990	Cannulae and the like
4	Oxygen teraphy	90268010	Oth instruments/apparatus for measuring/checking the flow,level,pressure,electrically operated
4	Oxygen teraphy	90268020	Oth instruments/apparatus for measuring/checking the flow,level,pressure, not electrically operated
4	Oxygen teraphy	90181900	Other electro-diagnostic apparatus used in medical
5	other medical	90221200	Computed tomography apparatus
5	other devices	90181200	Ultrasonic scanning apparatus,used in medical
5	other devices	90181100	Electro-cardiographs,used in medical
5	other devices	90189020	Intravenous administration set
5	other devices	90189030	Electronic instruments and appliances,used in medical
5	other devices	90189090	Other instruments and appliances,used in medical
5	other devices	90251911	Thermometers&pyrometers,elect operated,temperature gauges for motor vehicles
5	other devices	90251919	Thermometers&pyrometers,elect operated,oth temperature gauges for motor vehicles
5	other devices	90251920	Thermometers&pyrometers not electrically operated
5	other devices	84131910	Pump fitted with measuring device,electrically operated,excl for dispensing fuel/lubricant in filling-station/garage
5	other devices	84131920	Pump fitted with measuring device,not-electrically operatedexcl for dispensing fuel/lubricant in filling-station/garage
5	other devices	90282020	Water meters
5	other devices	90282090	Liquid meters other than water meters.
5	other devices	73249010	Other, including parts, flushing water closets or urinals (fixed type)
5	other devices	73249091	Parts of kitchen sinks or bathtubs
5	other devices	73249093	Parts of flushing water closets or urinals (fixed type)
5	other devices	73249099	Other parts of kitchen sinks or bathtubs/flushing water closets or urinals (fixed type)
6	other consumables	28044000	Oxygen
6	other consumables	30059010	Bandages
6	other consumables	30059020	Gauze
6	other consumables	30059090	Wadding & similar articles, except bandage & gauze
6	other consumables	30051010	Adhesive dressings & other articles having an adhesive layer, impregnated or coated with pharmaceutical substances
6	other consumables	30051090	Adhesive dressings&other articles having an adhesive layer,except impregnated or coated with pharmaceutical substances
6	other consumables	34012020	Soap chips
6	other consumables	34012091	Soap in other forms of a kind used for flotation deinking of recycled paper, other than soap chips
6	other consumables	34012099	Soap in other forms, other than soap chips & soap of a kind used for flotation deinking of recycled paper
6	other consumables	34011140	Medicated soap including disinfectant soap
6	other consumables	34011150	Other soap including bath soap
6	other consumables	34011160	Soap&org surf-active prod&prep, of felt/nonwovens,impregnated,coated/covered w/ soap/detergent
6	other consumables	34011190	Soap&org surf-active prod&prep,form of bars,cakes,mould pcs/shapes,&pap.wad,felt etc,for toilet use exc HS3401.11.40-60
6	other consumables	34013000	Organic surfaceactive products&prep for washing the skin,in the form of liq/cream&put up for retSale,containing soap/not
6	other consumables	90183110	Disposable syringes, with or without needles
6	other consumables	90183190	Syringes, with/without needles oth than disposable syringes
6	other consumables	90183200	Tubular metal needles and needles for sutures
6	other consumables	39232910	Aseptic bags of oth plastics,reinforced or not with aluminium foil,widthâ‰¥315mm&lengthâ‰¥410mm,incorporating a sealed gland
6	other consumables	39232990	AsepticBags of oth plastics,reinforced/not w aluminiumfoil (exc retort pouches),widthâ‰¥315mm&lengthâ‰¥410mm,not SealedGland
6	other consumables	30067000	Gel prep designed to be used in hum or vet med as a lubricant for parts of the body for surg operations or physical exam
6	other consumables	37011000	For Xray
6	other consumables	37021000	For Xray
6	other consumables	87059050	Oth special purpose motor vhcl,not design for person & goodStreet cleaning vhcl, cesspool emptiers, mobile clinics
6	other consumables	87059090	Oth special purpose motor vhcl,not design for person & goodother special vhcl
6	other consumables	94029010	Furniture designed for medical,surgical/ veterinarypurposes &parts thereof, oth than chairs
6	other consumables	94029020	Commodes
6	other consumables	94029090	Oth furniture designed for medical, surgical/veterinarypurpose&part thereof, oth than chairs and commodes
6	other consumables	84213920	Air purifiers
6	other consumables	84213990	Filtering/purifying mach & aparatus for gases
6	other consumables	73110023	Containers for compressed/liquefied gas,of iron/steel seamless steel cylinders,capacity>30L for LPG
6	other consumables	73110024	Containers for compressed/liquefied gas,of iron/steel seamless steel cylinders,capacity>30L &<110L for LPG
6	other consumables	73110025	Oth containers for compressed/liquefied gas seamless steel cylinders, for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
6	other consumables	73110026	Oth containers for compressed/liquefied gas seamless steel cylinders, capacity<30L
6	other consumables	73110027	Oth containers for compressed/liquefied gas,seamless steel cylinders,capacity>30L&<110L
6	other consumables	73110029	Oth containers for compressed/liquefied gas seamless steel cylinders, capacity>30L
6	other consumables	73110091	Other Containers for compressed or liquefied gas, of iron or steel with capacity < 7,3L
6	other consumables	73110092	Other Containers for compressed or liquefied gas, of iron or steel with capacity > 7,3L &< 30L
6	other consumables	73110094	Other Containers for compressed or liquefied gas, of iron or steel with capacity > 30L &< 110L
6	other consumables	73110099	Other Containers for compressed or liquefied gas, of iron or steel with capacity > 110L
6	other consumables	76130000	Aluminium containers for compressed or liquefied gas.
6	other consumables	63062200	Tents of synthetic fibres
6	other consumables	63062910	Tents of oth textiles of cotton
6	other consumables	63062990	Tents of oth textiles, oth than cotton
6	other consumables	84248910	Hand-operated household sprayers of capacity <= 3 l
6	other consumables	84248920	Spray heads with dip tubes
6	other consumables	84248940	Wet processing equipment;apparatus for the spot applicationof liquid;apparatus for the application of dry film/similar
6	other consumables	84248950	Mechanical appliances, electrically operated, oth than foragricultural/horticultural
6	other consumables	84248990	Mechanical appliances, not electrically operated, oth thanfor agricultural/horticultural
6	other consumables	70171010	Quartz reactor tubes&holders glass,for production of semiconductor wafers
6	other consumables	70171090	Laboratory/pharmaceutical glass of fused quartz/oth fusedsilica; other
6	other consumables	70172000	Laboratory,hygienic/pharmaceutical w/coef< 5x106/kelvin,0-3000c
6	other consumables	70179000	Laboratry,hygienic/pharmaceutical glasswre,nor fused quartz/fused silica

COVID-19 death rate in Indonesia

Sun, 27 Sep 2020 09:37:03 +1000

This morning, as usual, I prepared breakfast, did the dishes, all while listening to a podcast. One of my favorite, Babbage aired the recent development of COVID-19, including the decreasing death rate across the world.

As cases grow, we should expect a still increasing death rate as well. What happens is the contrary. Slavea Chankova, the healthcare-correspondent at The Economist, said that healthcare workers now have the knowledge to better treat COVID-19 patients. They also able to reduce the use of ICU bed, which is a good thing.

Other publications also say similar things. A post from The Conversation says that the decreased death rate is the result of increased proportion of young age. As test capacity increases, the death rate converges to the ’true’ death rate.

Furthermore, The Conversation post shows a graph where albeit increased number of new cases, new deaths are going down. This is in UK btw.

What about Indonesia?

The case in Indonesia is a bit different. I try to re-create the graph for Indonesian context using data from Our World in Data

import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns; sns.set()
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
c=pd.read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv")
c['date']=pd.to_datetime(c['date'])

y1=c['new_cases'][c['iso_code']=='IDN']
y2=c['new_deaths'][c['iso_code']=='IDN']
x=c['date'][c['iso_code']=='IDN']
df=pd.DataFrame({'date':x,'new_cases':y1,'new_deaths':y2})
plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))
ax = df.plot(x='date', y='new_cases', legend=False)
ax2 = ax.twinx()
df.plot(x='date', y='new_deaths', ax=ax2, legend=False, color="r")
ax.figure.legend()
plt.show()

#nt=sns.load_dataset("c")
#sns.lineplot(x=x, y=y, data=c)
# sns.lineplot(x=x, y=y4, data=c)

As you can see from the graph above, Indonesia’s new deaths are still on the increase as new cases goes up. New cases in Indonesia is still increasing, with new record breaking number of cases every day. Indeed, Indonesia, albeit its ability to ramp-up testing capacity, is still being criticised for not testing enough.

Death Ratio is converging

But when in comes to death rate, Indonesia is indeed converging to the world. The Jakarta Post, citing the satgas’ spokeperson Wiku Adisasmito, report that Indonesia’s death rate is constantly decreasing since April, although still above the world’s average.This may be at least a silver lining, although in Indonesia there’s also a ruckuss about the government trying to propose change the definition of COVID-19 death.

using $death rate = \frac{total cases}{total deaths} * 100$ , I try to illustrate Indonesia’s death rate and compare them to some countries I feel comparable. Data from Our World in Data.

cn=c[(c['iso_code'] == 'IDN') | (c['iso_code'] == 'IND') | (c['iso_code'] == 'BRA') | (c['iso_code'] == 'USA') | (c['iso_code'] == 'VNM') | (c['iso_code'] == 'MYS')]
cn['rate']=cn['total_deaths']/cn['total_cases']*100
plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))
#nt=sns.load_dataset("c")
#sns.lineplot(x=x, y=y, data=c)
sns.lineplot(x="date", y="rate", hue="iso_code", style="iso_code",data=cn)

Apart from Vietnam, the deathrate among these countries seem to have similar patterns. The explanation might be similar: better knowledge on how to treat patient, more, converging tests, and increased fraction of young population.

So, all is good?

Not necessarily. Remember, Indonesia’s case is still increasing fast, and with it, its new deaths. Hospital capacity and the availability of healthcare workers are increasingly become issues in handling COVID-19. This is still a big concern.

Naively speaking, there are two possible ways to handle this. One is to decrease the viral infection’s sped (so called flattening the curve), and the other is to improve healthcare capacity. Which one’s easier?

Another big recent news in Indonesia is the resignation of Professor Akmal Taher, a respectable doctor, from Indonesia’s COVID-19 task force. His reason was that improving testing and tracing would be easier to be done from outside of the task force. To me, this is very interesting development. What other place with better authority and resource to improve testing and tracing? Resource-wise, there can’t be a better place?

Does this means the top structure of the task force does not put testing and tracing as the main strategy? It is possible that the task force is prioritizing healthcare infrastructure, which is not what Akmal Taher would want. Me, being nobody, have not enough information to assess the best strategy in handling COVID-19, but it does seem that Indonesian government is having a lot of problems in terms of conducting a proper test and trace. Does that mean it is easier to buy hospital beds and recruit doctors and nurses?

Alas, this post provides more question than answer. So what do you think? Testing and tracing or improving healthcare capacity? Or both?

Trade, industry and investment: dealing with Covid-19

Sun, 16 Aug 2020 19:33:41 +1000

the talk can be find in this link

paper here

COVID-19 punishes Indonesian commodity exporters

Mon, 06 Jul 2020 14:44:34 +1000

Indonesia's PPE export ban backfires

Tue, 16 Jun 2020 14:44:52 +1000

The Export Ban and Standards Relaxation Drama in Indonesia's PPE Market

Wed, 10 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000

It’s probably no secret that I’ve been somewhat critical of the Ministry of Trade’s export ban, specifically Permendag 34/2020 on the export ban of antiseptics, PPE, masks, and PPE raw materials. The regulation may be well-intentioned, but it can have negative effects by disrupting supply chains, reducing the credibility of our government and businesses, and failing to help increase production capacity. Especially since we are highly import-dependent for nearly every COVID-19-related item (see tables 1 and 2). We could help the world fight COVID-19 by contributing our garment-sewing workforce for PPE, while obtaining those imported goods in return. Exports would also help secure dollar reserves for imports.

Table 1. Imports of COVID-19-related goods (1,000 $)

{% for row in site.data.coronaimpor %} {% if forloop.first %} {% for pair in row %} {% endfor %} {% endif %}

{% tablerow pair in row %}
{{ pair[1] }}
{% endtablerow %}

{% endfor %}

{{ pair[0] }}

*source: processed from the Ministry of Industry based on BPS data*

note: WCO/WHO classification can be found here. I’m still using edition 2; the latest is edition 3

Table 2. Exports of COVID-19-related goods (1,000 $)

{% for row in site.data.coronaekspor %} {% if forloop.first %} {% for pair in row %} {% endfor %} {% endif %}

{% tablerow pair in row %}
{{ pair[1] }}
{% endtablerow %}

{% endfor %}

{{ pair[0] }}

*source: processed from the Ministry of Industry based on BPS data*

note: WCO/WHO classification can be found here. I’m still using edition 2; the latest is edition 3

Supply chain disruption

What I feared has happened: The private sector has been able to produce quite a lot of PPE, but not all of it is being absorbed by the domestic market. The reason is that the Ministry of Health doesn’t want to risk domestically produced goods whose quality isn’t guaranteed, not made from non-woven material. Well, this spunbond non-woven material is imported; we’re not yet capable of mass-producing spunbond in-country. Most domestically produced PPE is cotton-based, which according to the Ministry of Health isn’t good enough, even though producers claim their PPE meets WHO standards.

What I find quite ironic is that the reason these companies were able to produce PPE in the first place is because the Ministry of Health relaxed distribution permits for PPE-producing companies. In fact, the Ministry boasted about the rapid growth of PPE suppliers thanks to their permit relaxation initiative. True, thanks to the relaxation, the number of PPE-supplying companies increased. But then the Ministry itself refused to buy because there were no standards – the very thing they had relaxed through their own policy. Wow!

Indonesia’s PPE export ban forces raw material exporters to think twice. They used to rely on countries like Indonesia to process their materials. This regulation introduces supply chain risk – the raw materials they send to Indonesia to be made into PPE might not come back intact. Better to make it yourself than take that risk. An Australian 3D printing company, 3DMEDiTech, used to be unable to compete with countries like Indonesia on PPE costs because 3D printing was more expensive. Thanks to international excess demand (partly thanks to countries banning exports!), their PPE prices became competitive.

Not just Australia – countries around the world have been repurposing their businesses to make masks and PPE. More expensive, sure, but clearly better than nothing. Governments in countries like Australia, China, and the United States have helped in various ways to facilitate these business pivots. Things like cheap loans, purchasing guarantees, and active coordination were deployed to help companies retool, purchase necessary equipment and materials, help companies estimate the business case for expansion, and share know-how along with standardization across domestic and even international agencies. I discussed this in another post.

Meanwhile, to the extent of my limited knowledge, measures beyond export bans, import facilitation, and standards relaxation don’t appear to have been initiated by the Indonesian government. There are various efforts by the task force to increase self-sufficiency in COVID-19 goods. But who knows. The task force has the privilege of importing directly. So their self-sufficiency will likely still depend on imports. Not a bad thing – just a little hypocritical.

Looking ahead

By the end of June, the export ban will expire. Most likely, it won’t be extended by the Ministry of Trade. The next thing to consider is how to export the PPE that has already been produced at competitive prices, meeting the standards recognized by the international market. With the new normal, PPE demand should increase sustainably, leaving room for our producers. What matters now is getting our PPE recognized internationally. Standards become even more important after the controversy over Chinese PPE being rejected everywhere for not meeting standards. Especially now that these countries can already make PPE on their own in large quantities (though possibly still more expensive than made in Indonesia).

BTW, why hasn’t there been any news about faulty PPE from China in Indonesia? We’ve received a lot of PPE from there. Hopefully there’s no issue and I’m just overthinking.

Another option might be to rely on domestic demand. The Ministry of Health can refuse to buy, but perhaps grassroots fundraising can be directed here. Let us buy it ourselves, then donate it to hospitals. But bear in mind, hospitals might have their own standards too. The absence of demand-supply coordination is costly. Usually this is solved by institutions bridging asymmetric information, namely quality checkers – in this case, the Ministry of Health. But the Ministry relaxed its own standards, so hospitals and suppliers have to communicate on their own. It may be too late now. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Without a solution, these PPE companies will have produced in vain. Costs already incurred may not generate revenue. The result? Companies close. Workers get fired. The economy underutilizes. Let’s hope that when we return to the new normal, we still have enough companies and workers.

Lessons from a public policy perspective

For those working in public policy or international trade, there is a valuable lesson here: policymaking is not as simple as flipping an on-off switch. Turn on barriers when you feel protection is needed, reduce them when you feel you need imports. Carelessly banning exports turns out to be not very useful: we still relied on PPE imports even when domestic producers could make them. Carelessly removing standards also produced goods whose quality was unacceptable to the Ministry of Health itself. This on-off approach has long been practiced by the Ministry of Trade to control prices of staple goods. It usually works. But COVID-19 is no ordinary phenomenon. The on-off approach is easier, but this time we need somewhat more creative policies. Something more sophisticated than on-off.

Another lesson: imports are not a bad thing. Just as I buy rice from farmers, Indonesia importing medical equipment is not something to be ashamed of. Using the rice analogy, rather than thinking “how do I grow my own rice,” I prefer to think “how can I be useful to farmers so they’ll sell me rice.” Economic complexity is a source of prosperity. Cooperation across professions – between farmers and non-farmers – is actually beneficial. Indonesia has had enough experience with self-sufficiency experiments that have been wasteful and unsustainable.

What we should be thinking about is how to participate in the global economy. If we can’t make medical equipment, what can we make? Indonesia has long contributed through commodities like oil (a long time ago), coal, and palm oil – things that are easy to produce. There’s still room to contribute in manufacturing, especially amid the world’s need to diversify away from China. This also requires more creative policies than just on-off.

It’s also somewhat funny when you think about it. What’s wrong with other countries being able to make things we need? Are they not allowed to be useful and impressive? Only we get to be impressive? Anyway. Hopefully this serves as a good lesson for all of us.

Daily COVID-19 Testing in Indonesia

Sun, 31 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The government seems increasingly eager to usher in the “New Normal” and start reopening the economy. A guidebook on how to handle the “New Normal” from BPOM has already been circulated. News about malls reopening was everywhere (though apparently Summarecon Mal Bekasi did not open after all). The economy was set to bounce back!

According to many sources (for example, this one), the key to a successful economic reopening is a high growth rate of daily testing – in other words, massive testing. But have we actually achieved sufficient massive testing?

import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns; sns.set()
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
c=pd.read_csv("https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv")
c['date']=pd.to_datetime(c['date'])
y=c['new_tests'][c['iso_code']=='IDN']
y1=c['new_tests_smoothed'][c['iso_code']=='IDN']
x=c['date'][c['iso_code']=='IDN']
plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))
#nt=sns.load_dataset("c")
sns.lineplot(x=x, y=y, data=c)
sns.lineplot(x=x, y=y1, data=c)

The chart above shows the number of “new tests” per day. The data is taken from Our World in Data. It is updated daily based on government reports. The x-axis shows the date, while the y-axis represents the variable “new_tests” from the original dataset. In short, this is the daily test count.

The dots and the thin line show the raw daily test numbers, while the blue line shows the smoothed new tests.

As a brief aside, the code above was run on Python 3.7. The data is read directly from Our World in Data’s online portal, so every time you run it, you get the latest figures. If you have Python on your machine, feel free to copy the code above to see the most current data.

Indonesia’s daily testing clearly has a lot of gaps, and up until 26 May 2020, the daily test count was still very volatile. The ups and downs are somewhat random. Some opinions I have seen on Twitter suggest that daily test counts are hard to predict because they depend not only on the number of swabs conducted but also on the queue of samples at laboratories. So the numbers reported on a given day may actually be the results of swabs taken the day before.

I have not followed the COVID-19 testing debate too closely, to be honest. I had not updated on COVID-19 in a while, but the sudden buzz around reopening the economy piqued my curiosity. Also, Bio Farma reportedly succeeded in producing its own PCR test kits, claiming it can produce 100,000 per day. Assuming smooth logistics to labs and sufficient lab capacity, massive testing should be achievable. Hopefully this upward trend continues and remains sustainable during the New Normal.

By the way, the data comes from the central government, and the central government’s data reflects its own testing plus tests conducted by regional governments (and perhaps private entities). Although we do not have data beyond the central government’s reports, at least regional governments know their own numbers.

Also, other countries have somewhat erratic “new tests” data as well. New Zealand and Malaysia are also volatile, while Japan does not report daily new tests (though cumulative totals are available). Vietnam’s data suddenly drops and disappears midway. So perhaps this is why President Jokowi felt so confident.

import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns; sns.set()
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
c=pd.read_csv("https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv")
c['date']=pd.to_datetime(c['date'])
plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))
#cn=c.drop(c[(c['iso_code'] != 'IDN')| c[(c['iso_code'] != 'VNM') | c[(c['iso_code'] != 'SGP') | c[(c['iso_code'] != 'AUS') | c[(c['iso_code'] != 'MYS')].index)
cn=c[(c['iso_code'] == 'IDN') | (c['iso_code'] == 'VNM') | (c['iso_code'] == 'MYS') | (c['iso_code'] == 'JPN') | (c['iso_code'] == 'NZL')]
sns.lineplot(x="date", y="new_tests", hue="iso_code", style="iso_code",data=cn)

Here I used raw daily tests, not daily tests per 1,000 population. If I used the per-capita measure, other countries would be so far above that Indonesia would look like a flat line. Anyway, I was trying to use the argument that “we are confident enough to reopen because testing capacity has been ramped up.” Using this argument, Indonesia’s upward trend does look reasonable. Whether it is sufficient or not, of course, is still a matter of debate – and I am sure many others have already weighed in.

In closing, there are of course many reasons behind the decision to reopen the economy, not just testing. I am not trying to discuss those other reasons. This post was simply meant to provide a brief snapshot of how Indonesia’s daily testing has been progressing. I will leave the rest to the experts.

COVID-19 dan Anjloknya Indeks PMI Indonesia

Tue, 05 May 2020 14:45:13 +1000

Indonesia's Trade Policy Amid COVID-19

Wed, 15 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Today I saw on Twitter some concern over a Kompas article. The article reported that Indonesia would continue exporting Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). The context is, of course, COVID-19: amid a pandemic, Indonesia itself needs a lot of PPE. How can we be exporting to other countries?

Why export bans aren’t as simple as they sound

The policy of banning exports sounds very intuitive: if we need it ourselves, why export? We should fulfill domestic needs first before exporting. We’re not the only country doing this either. The United States (US) once forced 3M, the well-known mask manufacturer, to ban mask exports. The EU did the same, banning exports of COVID-19-related goods.

Indonesia enacted its export ban through Ministry of Trade Regulation No. 31/2020. I wrote about it in another blog post. But that post probably still referenced the earlier restriction. The export ban has now been expanded to include thermometers and ethyl alcohol.

Of course, the intentions are good. I too am saddened seeing healthcare workers struggling for PPE. Whatever I write here doesn’t change the fact that the export ban has already been enacted, and some PPE exports were still cleared by Customs despite the ban. (Note: Customs falls under the Ministry of Finance, not the Ministry of Trade). This post offers some perspective on why the Finance Minister decided to continue exporting some PPE.

According to the article, the main reason is that the PPE orders were already bound by purchase contracts. Honoring contracts is obviously important. These contracts may have been made before the regulation was issued. They could also represent a small share of total PPE exports.

It’s also possible that our exporters are contract manufacturers (makloon) – basically selling sewing services. In contract manufacturing, the materials come from the buyer. They send materials to the seamstress, provide specifications, we sew it, then ship it back. We’re paid only for the sewing service, since the materials are theirs. Yes, this is exactly what happens when you get a blazer tailored or wedding outfits sewn. If the tailor suddenly says “oh, I’ll keep these clothes for myself – I’m getting married too, so I need them,” you’d be pretty annoyed.

But the two paragraphs above are speculation. I could be wrong. Please correct me. Those two paragraphs illustrate why some PPE exports continue.

Additional context: here’s a more complete answer about PPE exports from my friend Fathoni. Thank you, Mas Fathoni.

Itu kan bu sri jelasin ada kontrak. Pak doni jg jelasin, kontraknya, bahannya kita impor dari korea dan jepang. Lalu hasilnya 40% kita balikin ekspor ke mereka. 60% buat kita. Mau gimana lagi. Global chain.
— Fathoni (@FansRossoneri) April 15, 2020

Additional update: confirmed that the PPE exports are indeed contract manufacturing (i.e., raw materials are imported). Check this article.

But beyond that, export bans in general do have their own potential problems.

General problems with export bans

In the 3M vs US case, the US ultimately agreed to let 3M continue exporting. The EU received much criticism for its export ban (including from PIIE (btw that PIIE article is great – lots of data)), until it eventually softened and relaxed its ban. There are many reasons. One is humanitarian. Right now, the whole world needs these goods, not just the US or EU. 3M said it wanted to continue helping countries in need, like those in Latin America and elsewhere.

The next problem is supply chain. Making proper, standards-compliant, quality PPE requires non-trivial raw materials. I don’t know the details, but according to this article, at least for masks, the raw materials are quite specialized. Of course we could substitute with cloth, but how could we let healthcare workers on the front lines use masks and PPE that aren’t medical grade?

Yes, while we’re skilled at sewing PPE and making ethanol, we’re not strong in other areas. We import about 80% of our masks from the PRC. Surgical gowns too – over 50% are imported from the PRC. And we haven’t even discussed other items like PPE raw materials, COVID-19 testing kits, and ventilators. Countries like South Korea, Japan, and the PRC continue to supply Indonesia with various essential goods. What happens if they refuse to export to us because we won’t help them make PPE? What if they too run short of PPE and can’t scale up production to help us?

In fact, the Ministry of Trade issued another regulation facilitating imports of these goods. Again, intuitively, import facilitation is good. But this depends entirely on our trading partners’ reactions. And we haven’t even discussed food imports. Currently, the only facilitated food imports are garlic and onions. Rice? Salt? Sugar?

Imports mean foreign exchange. If we need imports, we need foreign exchange to pay for them. Currently, BI and the Ministry of Finance are working to secure dollar reserves. BI still has decent reserves thanks to tight financial sector controls. The Ministry of Finance has started selling USD-denominated bonds. We already have a currency swap arrangement with the US Fed. But in times like these, the question “are our reserves sufficient?” will always haunt policymakers. Exports help Indonesia maintain dollar reserves and manage the rupiah exchange rate.

At the very bottom, I’ve tried to compile COVID-19-related goods based on WCO and GTA classifications. I’ve added columns showing Indonesia’s export-import policies, as well as export-import values from 2015-2019. You can see there that while we’re in surplus for PPE and ethyl alcohol, we’re heavily import-dependent for everything else.

We need the world just as the world needs us. One country recovering is pointless if other countries are still sick, at least until a vaccine arrives. Even when a vaccine is developed, we’ll most likely import it. Hopefully the producing country won’t ban its export.

This is truly a difficult choice. Very difficult. In tough times, saving yourself becomes an unavoidable option and solution.

I personally subscribe to the view that “if the problem isn’t trade, it shouldn’t be solved with trade policy.” If the problem is production, increase production. If the problem is healthcare facilities and workers, improve them. If the problem is distribution/logistics, improve logistics. Trade policy is difficult to use as the primary solution because trade policy can create new problems no less important to address.

The shortage of healthcare facilities and workers is a long-standing problem haunting Indonesia. It has appeared repeatedly in WHO publications and stories from colleagues specializing in health economics. Logistics also seems problematic. It’s hard to know precisely who produces what, which hospital needs how much of what, etc. Government data accuracy is often questioned. The demand-supply gap certainly increases incentives for hoarding.

Untuk info riset dan data, kami dibantu relawan @septian yang adalah asisten profesor dan peneliti MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) di salah satu rumah sakit umum di Singapura, aktivitas sambilannya sekarang adalah tracking data #COVIDー19 di Singapura.
— KawalCOVID19 (@KawalCOVID19) March 2, 2020

The PRC has been dealing with this pandemic since early January. We had enough time to react, in theory. Now it’s too late. Difficult decisions must be made. Decisions made too late are always the hardest. Prevention is always better than cure.

So what should be done?

It’s no longer relevant to talk about prevention. How to cure, other than export bans?

Perhaps the best approach is to boost production. Right now, the main problem is excess demand – a gap between production and consumption. Usually, we bridge this gap through international trade: export surplus production and import shortfalls. But due to the global pandemic, the whole world is short. As a result, we can’t rely on other countries’ surplus – everyone is running short.

This is where production increase becomes the best solution. If everyone is short, let’s make more. Many countries are doing this by redirecting production at many factories: perfume factories making disinfectants, paint factories making masks, etc. To do this, governments must provide the right incentives. Cheap loans, long-term purchasing guarantees (at least enough to recoup the cost of capacity expansion), and so on. I discussed this approach in another post.

If so many Indonesian seamstresses can mobilize on their own just from netizen coordination without any government incentives, imagine if it were all coordinated! It would be so much more efficient!

If the solution is insufficient production, then international trade becomes even more important. Until now, Global Value Chains (GVCs) have been the solution for many countries because they’re efficient. Countries good at making materials cooperate with countries good at sewing. Countries good at software and semiconductors cooperate with countries good at materials and assembly. Indonesia is good at making PPE, so let’s scale up our sewing capacity for the whole world, while importing inputs and other goods like testing kits and ventilators from other countries. We need even more trade, not less!!

International cooperation becomes key. We must start negotiating with other countries. At minimum, talk to other countries’ leaders. Say we need their help, and they need ours. Sounds utopian?

The cooperative solution may not appeal to those who dislike depending on others. I personally can’t say whether we should or shouldn’t export. Let the policymakers deal with that. Hehe. I’m just offering a bit of perspective from the Finance Minister’s point of view. I’m guessing what she might be thinking. Hopefully this post helps a little. If you have comments, criticism, or suggestions, write below or mention me on Twitter.

Sorry, doctors and nurses. All I can do is write. Hopefully you all stay healthy and motivated. Hopefully we all stay healthy and motivated. Don’t forget to do whatever you can to reduce the burden on healthcare facilities and workers.

Stay at home if you can. Make it safer for those who can’t.

Trade and COVID-19: The Weakness of Comparative Advantage Amid Coronavirus?

Wed, 25 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

COVID-19 appears to still be ongoing. The latest update puts us at 686 cases. As testing increases, cases will rise even faster. Even with the current situation, our healthcare workers are struggling with a shortage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) such as hazmat suits and masks.

Noah Smith in his latest Bloomberg column says that the United States (US) is also short on PPE and swabs. The main reason? The US doesn’t make these items domestically, relying instead on supply from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The U.S. economy could shrink by 30% in the second quarter, and the necessity of doing coronavirus testing has created an abrupt shift in the demand for medical equipment.

"What made economic sense yesterday doesn't make sense today," writes @Noahpinion https://t.co/WPHicjDL5f
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) March 24, 2020

In his article, Noah points the finger at comparative advantage theory. Comparative advantage is a standard theory in international economics, first proposed by David Ricardo. The theory essentially says that the economy is more efficient when a country concentrates on producing the goods and services it’s best at, selling them worldwide. Everything else can be imported (since other countries are better at making those goods, comparatively speaking). In this case, the PRC is a fairly efficient PPE producer compared to the US. Rather than spending labor and capital making masks, the US economy is better off concentrating on healthcare services, where the US is indeed one of the world’s pioneers in health innovation. Masks can simply be imported from other countries.

According to Noah, in a crisis like this, global demand shifts dramatically. Suddenly, PPE demand has surged everywhere. Some countries (including Indonesia) have even imposed PPE export bans to prioritize domestic needs. When this happens, the US isn’t prepared to make its own PPE because it has been relying on the PRC. If the US had been making PPE all along, scaling up production to meet this sudden demand spike wouldn’t be as difficult.

Speaking of which, what about Indonesia? Indonesia has issued Ministry of Trade Regulation No. 23/2020 on the Temporary Export Ban of Antiseptics, Mask Raw Materials, PPE, and Masks (download here) to secure domestic supplies. But even with this ban, healthcare workers still face PPE shortages. Indonesia even imported 12 tons of PPE from the PRC. Good thing the PRC didn’t ban PPE exports.

So it seems Indonesia too must depend on other countries to fight COVID-19, and the PRC appears to be the most prepared to rapidly scale up production.

Back to comparative advantage – what is our comparative advantage in medical equipment? I tried illustrating this in Table 1. Table 1 contains products temporarily banned from export under Permendag 23/2020. I’ve added export and import statistics from trademap.org. To properly analyze comparative advantage, we’d need export and import data for all product types. For simplicity, I just use exports and imports. High exports indicate we’re good at producing these goods. PRC imports are added to reflect dependence on the PRC.

Table 1. Export ban items by HS code and their 2018 exports and imports, USD

No	Item	HS	Total Exports	Total Imports	Imports from PRC	PRC Import Share (%)
A1	Alcohol-based antiseptic handrub	Ex.3004.90.30	2,697	2,085	144	6.91
A2	Antiseptic handrub with coal tar and alkali	Ex.3808.94.10	-	146	0	0
A3	Antiseptic handrub in aerosol form	Ex.3808.94.20	0	154	29	18.83
A4	Other antiseptic handrub	Ex.3808.94.90	13	6,831	190	2.78
B1	Mask raw material with man-made filaments	Ex.5603.11.00	36,159	90,458	27,262	30.14
B2	Mask raw material without man-made filaments	Ex.5603.91.00	4,557	10,400	3,880	37.31
C1	Medical PPE	Ex.6210.10.19	259	45	7	15.55
C2	Surgical PPE	6211.43.10	9,965	107	61	57
D1	Surgical masks	6307.90.40	506	1,636	1,416	86.55
D2	Other masks (nonwoven)	Ex.6307.90.90	13,3274	19,066	11,306	59.3

Source: jdih.kemendag.go.id and trademap.org

Looking at 2018 statistics, the temporary export ban seems justified. Our garment workers are skilled. For PPE, we clearly export far more than we import. The export ban should help hospitals and other healthcare facilities obtain PPE.

However, for other items, this conclusion is harder to draw. For raw materials, we clearly import more than we export. For surgical masks, imports are not only larger – most come from the PRC. What’s ironic is that the export ban was enacted because Indonesian mask exports had suddenly spiked. Yet as we can see, surgical masks (HS 6307.90.40) had more imports from the PRC than exports, at least in 2018 per the data in Table 1.

Did mask factories in Indonesia suddenly multiply and become super productive in 2019 and 2020? Possibly. But several other explanations seem more plausible: the price surge. News reports only reported increases in USD value. As we know, Indonesia was a latecomer to the COVID-19 outbreak compared to the PRC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea. It’s natural that prices offered by these countries would spike first. Additionally, the rupiah has been weakening. In other words, the USD export value may have risen significantly because of per-unit price increases, not because production suddenly surged. Another possibility is that exporters sold their warehouse stock.

Another problem making this analysis difficult is the many “Ex.” annotations in the regulation. “Ex.” means not all goods in that HS category are banned – they’re screened further by item description. Indeed, the descriptions in Table 1 don’t exactly match the HS definitions. We could be exporting and importing goods with different descriptions but within the same HS group.

Unfortunately, I can’t confirm all this with limited data. But regarding comparative advantage, what I can say is that I don’t agree comparative advantage is the cause. True, crises will cause dramatic changes in the marginal valuation of all goods. But when the entire world experiences a shift in consumption patterns like this (where mask demand suddenly surges while demand for non-essential goods plummets), what matters is probably how flexibly an economy can adjust.

Global demand, not just the US, has surged. The world’s main supplier, the PRC, is struggling to increase production. The US itself has asked non-PPE factories like car manufacturers to repurpose as mask factories, and it appears feasible. I think this is fundamentally a pandemic preparedness problem. The US is certainly the world’s superpower in military equipment production, but it simply never planned for a pandemic this large. Pandemics weren’t considered as important as military crises, for which the US is extremely prepared, even maintaining military bases worldwide.

In my other writing, I discuss how factories are beginning to repurpose as antiseptic and mask producers. The key is how authorities can expedite permits like distribution licenses or reduce import barriers on raw materials during this crisis. If markets can adapt quickly, the government must facilitate that change. A country could even develop plans or protocols for factory repurposing to meet medical equipment needs during crises, similar to how the military plans for highways to serve as emergency aircraft runways in wartime.

Right now, international cooperation is essential to save lives and, of course, the economy. This is the difficulty with epidemics. As long as one country remains infected, it can still spread to its neighbors. Global health is important for all of us, especially exporters and users of foreign products. Our health is in the PRC’s and the US’s interest, and vice versa. I’ve seen on social media an enormous number of efforts to increase PPE and mask production from civil society, but the PRC is among the fastest to scale up production of healthcare goods.

For now, we need to rely on them, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

The Role of Manufacturing Industry Amid the COVID-19 Storm

Sun, 22 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

I believe much has already been said about COVID-19’s impact on both health and the economy. The latest I read was the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 according to Professor McKibbin and his student Fernando’s model. They use several shocks, including reduced labor supply, increased risk premia, and higher production costs. All of these are naturally relevant, especially for manufacturing, which makes work from home difficult since factory workers must operate machinery on-site.

Of course, demand has also become quite unusual. People suddenly value items like toilet rolls, antiseptics, and there’s been a sudden spike in demand for instant food and rice. But above all, the need for personal protective equipment for healthcare workers and antiseptics has probably become the most important right now, especially for healthcare facilities and their staff who are currently risking their lives for us.

In this post, I want to highlight an interesting phenomenon: the shift in production function for some factories that are starting to produce goods they don’t normally make. LVMH, the company behind Louis Vuitton, Bulgari, and brands I’ve never purchased, has repurposed its perfume and cosmetics factories to produce antiseptics. BYD, a Chinese company that normally makes electric vehicles, has started making face shields and disinfectants. Nissan, GM, Rolls-Royce, Foxconn, and even Airbus appear to be doing the same – helping make ventilators, PPE, and disinfectants.

This all makes sense. In the midst of such uncertainty, who in their right mind would spend their savings on a new car? Bond yields are even going negative. People buying bonds until yields go negative clearly means they’re desperate for secure cash in the future, right? Better for manufacturers to shift production to something the market actually wants. The government will certainly buy all of it.

This temporary factory repurposing has already been initiated by governments around the world, such as Canada and the United Kingdom. In China, 2,500 factories are now making masks – factories that used to make other things.

As far as I know, other countries are still asking industry to help make PPE and disinfectants but haven’t offered incentives yet (CMIIW). In the People’s Republic of China (PRC), they’re using industrial policy to incentivize factories to pivot to mask production. Some of these incentives include subsidies, tax breaks, interest-free loans, and expedited permits. For SOEs, they probably just get told what to do. But clearly, these incentive-driven efforts appear to have successfully and efficiently redirected national production during this crisis.

On my social media feed, I keep seeing posts saying our healthcare facilities are running short on PPE. This shortage persists even after the Ministry of Trade issued Regulation No. 23/2020 on the temporary export ban for PPE and disinfectants. The likely explanation is that our production capacity can’t keep up with the sudden demand surge.

Pagi ini mndengar kabar duka berplgnya tmn sejawat dokter, usia 30-an.

Catatan sy, hampir 10 tng kesehatan di 🇮🇩 meninggal (dr total 38 kematian) terkait #COVID19.

Kami tdk mt dikasihani. Kami mt pemerintah sediakan Alat Pelindung Diri. Byk petugas yg bekerja tanpa terlindungi!
— Dirga Sakti Rambe (@dirgarambe) March 22, 2020

Many citizens are trying to help. I’ve seen on Twitter so many initiatives to make masks. Here’s one example and its replies:

A THREAD

Mengatasi Kelangkaan Masker

Di semua negara, masker langka. Thread ini buat para ibu rumah tangga yang suka njahit, dan para tukang jahit.

"Tukang Jahit Bergerak"

Tentang masker yang bisa dibuat sendiri berdasarkan penelitian dari Cambridge University.

/1
— Ismail Fahmi (@ismailfahmi) March 21, 2020

But if the government wanted to do something, it certainly could.

Regarding cheap/interest-free loans, this falls under Bank Indonesia or OJK’s authority, to ensure banking has sufficient liquidity and is healthy enough to supply the market. Government incentives, tax cuts, and import duty reductions are the authority of the government, especially the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Health handles distribution permits or medical device standards (probably needed?). As I recall, many of our textile products have imported components that are restricted by the Ministry of Trade. So if desired, the Ministry of Trade could issue regulations facilitating the import of mask inputs. Interestingly, we’ve already banned PPE and disinfectant exports. If scaling up PPE production massively requires importing raw materials, it feels a bit awkward. Especially if the PRC successfully ramps up mask production massively and quickly, and we end up being the ones who need it. Sad, really.

The Ministry of Industry doesn’t seem to have much of a role, despite being the ministry overseeing manufacturing. At minimum, it could coordinate with factories that might be repurposable, while asking the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Trade to provide necessary incentives. Of course, if there are subsidies for factories that temporarily pivot, the channel would likely be the Ministry of Industry. So budget revisions might also be possible. But how the process works and whether it can be fast probably depends on the bureaucracy.

In closing, I want to encourage everyone to try to stay home. If you can work from home, then work from home. Leave the roads clear for those who can’t work from home. Stay as healthy as possible, wash your hands frequently, and improve personal hygiene. Leave space at healthcare facilities for those who are truly sick. I believe this already helps a lot. Hopefully we can all get through this together.

Stay at home if you can. Make it safer for those who can’t.

COVID-19 and The Economy of Informal Sectors

Thu, 19 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The organization has sent letters to inform global leaders to prepare themselves for the worst to come, including our very leader Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Jokowi’s way of handling the pandemic so far has been receiving criticism for not doing (professionally) enough, with some Some even suggest a lockdown.

Jokowi is accused to being too concern on economic consequences of the COVID-19. It is a reasonable concern. The economy is arguably as important as the lockdown to keep people alive. Jokowi and the central bank delivers certain measures like rate cut, bond buying, and tax cuts as well as simplifying imports..

These measures are a welcoming sight. Indonesia import most of its basic needs such as rice, sugar and salt, as well as many inputs for industry. Rate cuts and tax cuts may benefit firms’ cash flow as well as employees.

However, Easing import restriction will only be useful if the exporting countries still operate normally. Under a global pandemic, this might not be true, especially since many important inputs are coming from China, the central of the outbreak. Secondly, for manufacturing sectors, if demand is weak, companies may not need that many input imports. That said, easing import restriction is always a welcoming sight. It is just a bit sad we need an outbreak for the government to see this.

Secondly, while tax cuts are helpful for both firms and workers, it may not benefit enough people. There are only 11% of Indonesian have tax registration number (NPWP). A study by World Bank suggests that more than 60% of Indonesian workers are informal. Informal sectors dominate the number of total firms and workers. They pay no taxes, so tax cut won’t help them at all. More importantly, they tend to live hand-to-mouth. Extreme health measures such as lockdown to these people could mean death sentence, probably worse than the virus itself.

In economic textbooks, credit market works to dampen crisis like this. In China and The United States (U.S.), banks put a pause on credit payments, helping firms and individuals with credit cards a breathing space. Chinese firms also got a green light from the government to issue a so-called coronavirus bond to keep their cash flow running for in the short run. Obviously this is not something informal sectors can do. Even without the virus, informal sectors are not bankable, let alone accessing credits.

The logical measure to these vulnerable people and firms is a direct cash transfer. We are not new to cash transfer. We have experience with programs such as Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) and Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), and other measures to help the poor (involving many “cards”). The infrastructure that the these programs have might help to disburse more money to the vulnerables, given OECD estimates There are only about 49% Indonesian have bank accounts.

However, the central government may have no vision on the people outside of pro-poor programs but may be vulnerable amid working in an informal economy. OECD review of Indonesia’s social protection system (2019) mentioned exactly this problem, where informal sectors are invisible to the system. They are probably not poor, but are very vulnerable to shocks. the need to strengthen Indonesia’s information architecture is emphasized by OECD, as well as the need to increase the coverage of Indonesia’s social protection system to also include the informal sector workers and businesses.

Visibility is one, logistic is another. As far as my memory serves me, BLT was conducted via literal cash transfer (exactly giving away banknotes). I would speculate that delivery via “Jokowi special cards” need the cards to be given away manually. Imagine if one has to do this in a soft-lockdown scale. No electronic transfers, no pipe delivery (except maybe electricity). Everything has to be done physically.

Advance countries like Australia deliver their stimulus package via small and medium business, since most if not all of Australian firms are tax registered. There is also options to conduct bank transfers or access to pensions. This is a luxury Indonesian government do not have.

I am not sure how much cash is needed to finance a lockdown. Even an advance country like Australia opt to not having a lockdown amid the potentially high cost. It seems indeed letting the economy move (albeit slowly) is a much viable option. The cash is then best spend on increasing the availability of tests and the capacity of healthcare. I am sure healthcare system have its own problem, but I won’t comment on that rite now.

Alas, the government has very little option. As expensive as the intervention might be, an ignorance might cost so much more in the long run. The silver lining of all of this is, at least I hope the government realize how important it is to have a clear vision on the economy of the informal.

Lastly, perhaps, government bonds might be the instrument the government need to unleash. Forget the fiscal rule, 3% deficit for now. It is not the time. Local government should probably open to possibility of issuing municipality bonds just in case. There won’t be any buyer maybe, but we always have the central bank.

For now, keep your hands clean and your fingers crossed. We’ll make it thru this together.

Me, Canberra, and COVID-19

Thu, 19 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Hey folks. It’s been a long time since I’ve updated the blog. Things have been pretty crazy. All because of COVID-19.

As you may know, this novel coronavirus has sent the whole world into a frenzy. The problems caused by the virus have been changing so fast, much faster than governments and ordinary people can react. When COVID-19 first started making headlines, I was shocked and didn’t know what to do. All I could do was watch the news. I’m currently in Australia, but half my mind is in Depok, where my family lives, especially my mother who is 70++. All I can do is offer prayers and support for my sibling who helps take care of our mother’s needs.

At my campus, all teaching has now been instructed to go online, following the Prime Minister’s order to ban indoor gatherings. As a tutor for ECON3101 (microeconomics 3), I’ve been affected too. I need to prepare online content for the tutorials I’ll be running. All seminars and thesis supervisor consultations also have to be done online. It’s a bit of a hassle because I have to learn how to use Zoom for recording tutorials and hosting/joining meetings. Thankfully, it’s not too difficult.

The public is panicking and engaging in panic buying, as you may have seen on social media. Toilet paper has been completely out of stock for a week now. Fortunately, as users of the traditional water scoop and bucket, we don’t really care. But other commodities like antiseptics are also sold out. Last we checked, food supplies are still okay. Hopefully they stay that way. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has condemned hoarding and assured that Australia’s logistics system will remain capable of maintaining the supply of essential goods.

Yesterday morning, Scott Morrison held a press conference about what Australia would do. All international flights will be banned (except for returning Australian citizens) to close off imported transmission. This allows the government to focus on preventing domestic transmission. Schools will remain open, and a lockdown is unlikely. Gatherings are regulated by size. Indoors, 100 people or more are banned. Outdoors, 500. He also stated that the special task force, the federal government, and state governments are all on the same page and supporting each other in facing COVID-19. Social distancing is recommended, and if you can work from home, then work from home.

All these rules (gathering bans, international travel ban, social distancing, etc.) are anticipated to be the norm for at least 6 months.

Six. Months.

My campus reacted immediately. Emails flooded my inbox. Various advisories about working from home, collecting data, setting up remote work, and instructions on how to create online tutorials all came pouring in. Campus management must be incredibly busy. As a good employee, all I can do is follow all advisories and work from home as much as possible.

My current activities involve intensive coordination for online teaching with lecturers, learning to create content, and making sure my wife and I have enough contingency plans to prepare for the worst. We’re anti-hoarding, so hopefully this principle won’t lead to us starving. I have reasonable faith in the Australian government.

The slightly annoying thing is that I now have to follow COVID-19 developments intensively in two countries. I have to watch both Scott Morrison’s and Jokowi’s speeches. Haha.

Stay safe people. Stay healthy. Wash your hands frequently. Cut back on going out. Hopefully we can all get through this.

COVID-19 and Its Potential Impact on Indonesia-China Trade

Tue, 03 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The world is in turmoil due to the emergence of the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. The virus first broke out in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), specifically in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, at the start of the year just as the Chinese Lunar New Year was about to begin. As of this writing, the WHO reports 88,948 confirmed cases worldwide, of which 80,174 are in the PRC (see this for real-time statistics). The entire world faces high risk from COVID-19, including Indonesia.

COVID-19’s impact on the Indonesian economy

COVID-19 has forced the government to lock down several major cities that also serve as industrial hubs. People have had extended holidays, and many factories have had to temporarily close. The problem is that the PRC is an enormous and critically important country for the global economy, especially in terms of supply chains. Whatever happens to the PRC becomes everyone’s problem.

Wuhan is known as “Motor City”, home to factories of General Motors, Honda, Nissan, Peugeot Group, and Renault. Apple had to delay production of their latest iPhone because many parts are made in China. 80% of the world’s tin foil (the stuff inside cigarette packs or the golden wrapping on chocolate) comes from the PRC. The PRC is also a major supplier of pharmaceutical ingredients, and the FDA (the US equivalent of BPOM) has stated that coronavirus could disrupt drug and antibiotic supplies in the United States.

COVID-19’s impact has also been strongly felt in ASEAN, including Indonesia. The impact on tourism has already been widely discussed. The PRC is Indonesia’s number 1 trading partner, supplying about 24% of Indonesia’s total imports. In this blog, I will discuss further the direct impact on fulfilling Indonesian needs sourced from PRC imports.

Table 1 shows the top 15 import categories by HS Code 2-digit from the PRC. These fifteen categories represent 75% of total imports from the PRC, or 10% of Indonesia’s total imports from the entire world.

Table 1. Top 15 Indonesian imports from the PRC (2016-2018)

HS	Product	Value (USD)			Share of total imports (%)
		2016	2017	2018	2016	2017	2018
85	Electrical machinery etc.	6,402,698	7,869,419	10,061,357	41.49%	43.88%	46.91%
84	Machinery, parts etc.	7,297,754	7,568,603	9,862,750	34.63%	34.77%	36.26%
72	Iron & steel	2,099,248	1,969,594	2,169,071	33.97%	24.67%	21.17%
39	Plastics etc.	1,157,847	1,354,452	1,749,920	16.54%	17.52%	19.00%
29	Organic chemicals	1,088,642	1,250,802	1,540,740	22.72%	21.21%	22.25%
73	Articles of iron and steel	819,808	702,805	1,499,319	27.96%	26.75%	38.57%
07	Edible vegetables	511,293	606,252	526,879	73.47%	73.87%	71.36%
54	Man-made filaments	685,937	807,116	965,376	48.57%	52.89%	55.32%
76	Aluminium and articles etc.	389,105	597,834	881,213	27.40%	31.89%	40.56%
28	Inorganic chemicals	554,205	627,526	833,354	36.93%	38.79%	40.52%
08	Edible fruit and nuts	341,864	564,379	741,351	40.31%	47.36%	56.55%
94	Furniture	456,621	561,263	707,565	62.97%	63.80%	68.57%
55	Manmade staple fibres	499,247	564,028	667,428	37.66%	41.91%	44.93%
38	Miscellaneous chemical products	450,683	572,947	635,029	23.58%	26.08%	23.78%
90	Medical or surgical instruments	382,860	517,446	598,079	16.27%	20.01%	20.73%
60	Knitted or crocheted fabrics	430,825	499,053	592,504	32.40%	37.33%	38.17%
95	Toys, games and sports requisites	139,003	217,808	322,842	66.19%	68.76%	75.30%

Source: ITC trade map

As shown in Table 1, many goods we import from the PRC are intermediate goods – raw materials and machinery. These include machines, iron and steel, plastics, and textile raw materials (fiber and yarn). We also import chemicals used as raw materials for various products such as medicine, food, and fertilizer. The PRC supplies about 30-50% of these goods, suggesting a significant impact on our production systems, though perhaps not as severe as for some other countries.

The product most likely to have a direct impact on the public is HS 07. The PRC supplies 71% of total imports in this category. Within HS 07, 93% is garlic. In other words, if something happens to the PRC, garlic supply will become scarce and very expensive. Additionally, imported children’s toys (75% from the PRC) will also be disrupted. While toys may not be as essential as garlic, Indonesian children may need to start loving domestic products.

This analysis doesn’t account for cascade effects, as it only shows direct imports from the PRC. If imports from other countries whose inputs come from the PRC are included, supply to Indonesia will automatically be disrupted. Hi-tech products like iPhones and other electronics very likely contain significant PRC components. Supply chains of Indonesia’s important trading partners like Japan, the United States, and South Korea are also closely linked with the PRC. Imports from these countries will likely be disrupted too.

Government steps to mitigate coronavirus impact

COVID-19’s impact on tourism has been immediate, probably because tourism is one of our few successful exports. The government reportedly has prepared IDR 47 trillion in incentives for tourism, including support for the aviation, hospitality, and influencer industries. However, there don’t appear to be any non-tourism measures planned beyond accelerating state and regional budget realization, which should be done quickly regardless of coronavirus.

Indonesia is indeed a country that trades relatively little, at only 60% of GDP. We’re often criticized for not joining the Global Value Chain trend like other countries. The upside is that when something happens to another country, the impact on us is smaller because our economy isn’t as deeply linked with others. In the world of international trade, Indonesia is something of an introvert. Being introverted has its advantages, it seems.

However, the impact on non-tourism sectors is, I believe, just a matter of time. The IHSG (stock market index) has reportedly declined due to coronavirus, with PT. ASTRA International as the main drag. Indonesia has also reported its first COVID-19 cases, which could have direct impacts on other sectors. And this doesn’t yet include psychological effects that could cause panic buying, which also needs to be anticipated. This means the government may need to start thinking about other solutions.

Some policies already implemented by the PRC include lowering lending rates and approving local governments to stimulate the real economy. PRC companies have been issuing coronavirus bonds to maintain cash flow. The PRC is also expected to further ease fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate business.

Currently, besides fiscal stimulus for tourism, Indonesia through Bank Indonesia has cut interest rates to 4.75%. However, the government has not yet seen the need for further fiscal and monetary easing. Perhaps because the non-tourism impact in Indonesia hasn’t been too large yet. I remain somewhat worried about raw material supply for industry, but especially about garlic supply for the people. Hopefully the Government can find a solution before it’s too late.

Updates on policies to mitigate COVID-19’s economic impact

March 3, 2020: Jokowi delays tourism incentives to prevent COVID-19 spread (Jakarta Post)
March 3, 2020: Raw material imports to be facilitated. Mechanism still under discussion (Kompas)
Triple intervention
Second stimulus
Australia
Australia 2